Fancy Stats for 2023

[BurgoShark]

There has been some discussion in the Ronnie thread around error rates. I thought I'd pull it together for all players and do a comparison for all players.

My stuff doesn't use "errors" the way they are typically recorded. I track negative attacking plays based on who is responsible, and both the situation/outcome. i.e. sometimes a player making the error isn't actually responsible, and sometimes a player attributed with an error actually made a positive play.

I had a look a a few ways of demonstrating this, and I thought the best way would be to use mean time between errors (MTBE). This tells us on average how many minutes a player will be on the field in attack before making a mistake. Higher numbers are better. This excludes the halve, plus Wade Graham because he is retired now and I can't be bothered.

Some interesting take aways here.
- The most likely to make an error was Tracey.
- The least likely was Kaufusi
- Wilton is less likely to make an error than Nikora
- Talakai is less likely to make an error than Mulitalo or Ramien

Keep in mind that this is minutes of attack. The 3 guys in black are making 1 error for every 40 minutes of attacking footy.

 

[bort]

At least Oregon hates making the lowlights as much as the highlights

 

[BurgoShark]

At least Oregon hates making the lowlights as much as the highlights

Sometimes boring is good.

Biggest surprise for me was Talakai. I thought he would have made way more than the other outside backs. At a guess I'd say I just remember his more because they were in his own end or because he had quite a few games with more than one.

Teig didn't have an error is his final 6 games. Still gets bagged for needing to improve his hands though.

 

[Sparkles]

There has been some discussion in the Ronnie thread around error rates. I thought I'd pull it together for all players and do a comparison for all players.

My stuff doesn't use "errors" the way they are typically recorded. I track negative attacking plays based on who is responsible, and both the situation/outcome. i.e. sometimes a player making the error isn't actually responsible, and sometimes a player attributed with an error actually made a positive play.

I had a look a a few ways of demonstrating this, and I thought the best way would be to use mean time between errors (MTBE). This tells us on average how many minutes a player will be on the field in attack before making a mistake. Higher numbers are better. This excludes the halve, plus Wade Graham because he is retired now and I can't be bothered.

Some interesting take aways here.
- The most likely to make an error was Tracey.
- The least likely was Kaufusi
- Wilton is less likely to make an error than Nikora
- Talakai is less likely to make an error than Mulitalo or Ramien

Keep in mind that this is minutes of attack. The 3 guys in black are making 1 error for every 40 minutes of attacking footy.

View attachment 30015

Hey mate, that's an interesting way to look at errors. So would you need to track positive and negative errors?

 

[BurgoShark]

Hey mate, that's an interesting way to look at errors. So would you need to track positive and negative errors?

Moreso it's about attributing the error to the guy who actually made the poor play, or not including things that weren't really error. e.g. bloke is making a tackle and the attacking player passes into his arms as he wraps.

... but there are instances where I would consider an error a positive play. A few times Ramien or Katoa got outnumbered, jammed in and knocked a ball down to save a certain try. For me that it a positive defensive play. Not an error or even something that I think should be included in their attacking stats.

Another example was Tommy's no-try against the Warriors. A kick from close range deflects off his leg and into his arm. That's an unlucky play that he had no control over and imo that's not a black mark on his attacking game on the day - but the kick pressure itself is a positive play.

 

[Sparkles]

Moreso it's about attributing the error to the guy who actually made the poor play, or not including things that weren't really error. e.g. bloke is making a tackle and the attacking player passes into his arms as he wraps.

... but there are instances where I would consider an error a positive play. A few times Ramien or Katoa got outnumbered, jammed in and knocked a ball down to save a certain try. For me that it a positive defensive play. Not an error or even something that I think should be included in their attacking stats.

Another example was Tommy's no-try against the Warriors. A kick from close range deflects off his leg and into his arm. That's an unlucky play that he had no control over and imo that's not a black mark on his attacking game on the day - but the kick pressure itself is a positive play.

Yeah, there will be errors that are just the result of the play being too difficult to pull off or just plain bad luck. As you say, there's an element of positive in it as you'd only make those errors by being involved. Tricky one... Some players have a knack of avoiding those positive errors and making it a positive play

 

[BurgoShark]

Yeah, there will be errors that are just the result of the play being too difficult to pull off or just plain bad luck. As you say, there's an element of positive in it as you'd only make those errors by being involved. Tricky one... Some players have a knack of avoiding those positive errors and making it a positive play

It’s also about the differentiation between attack and defence. If we are comparing players’ attacking performance/output it’s not really relevant to include “errors” that are attributed to them for making plays in defence.

I also track positive plays btw, and in some cases I would attribute 2 positive plays to a guy. E.g. if Katoa catches the ball on one of those plays I would consider that a positive play for shutting down the overlap AND a positive play for gaining possession.

 

[BurgoShark]

Another example is rd1 v Souths. Moyza puts up a bomb which is going out on the full. Ronnie chases hard, jumps over the side line and taps it back in, but it goes forward. Laurel gets it and runs 20-25m. Bunnies get tackle zero 30m out from their own line.

For me, Ronnie saved the ball going out and a handover even farther upfield. That’s not an error. At the very least it’s a neutral play. The error was Moylan’s.

There are dozens of examples like this across a season. Recording them in context tells a clearer story.

 

[Sparkles]

Another example is rd1 v Souths. Moyza puts up a bomb which is going out on the full. Ronnie chases hard, jumps over the side line and taps it back in, but it goes forward. Laurel gets it and runs 20-25m. Bunnies get tackle zero 30m out from their own line.

For me, Ronnie saved the ball going out and a handover even farther upfield. That’s not an error. At the very least it’s a neutral play. The error was Moylan’s.

There are dozens of examples like this across a season. Recording them in context tells a clearer story.

How would you see that data user in a practical sense? Putting your coaches hat back on for a moment

 

[BurgoShark]

How would you see that data user in a practical sense? Putting your coaches hat back on for a moment

Using that Ronnie example, I'd say that it was an effort play. A 1%er.

I'd see that as several separate things I could take from that play...
1) Ronnie effort play (which should be noted)
2) What did Moylan do? Everyone makes mistakes. What is more important is what you do next.
3) What did everyone else do? Did they chase, or just watch and assume it was going out? (I'm looking at you Cam, Blayke and Toby)

Moylan puts in a shocker but chases hard to try and mitigate the damage, Ronnie turns a handover 35 out into a zero tackle 10m out, but some middles are lazy and don't chase. End result on the stat sheet is Ronnie copping an error. Great play Ronnie. From a coaching point of view that's something you pat a guy on the back for. If he makes 5 of these in a season and ends up with 5 more errors than some other bloke who didn't put in that 1% extra effort it would be silly to look at the EOY stats and say that Ronnie makes more errors than that guy.

Here is the play I'm talking about.

https://imgur.com/tskpVKA

 

[Sparkles]

Using that Ronnie example, I'd say that it was an effort play. A 1%er.

I'd see that as several separate things I could take from that play...
1) Ronnie effort play (which should be noted)
2) What did Moylan do? Everyone makes mistakes. What is more important is what you do next.
3) What did everyone else do? Did they chase, or just watch and assume it was going out? (I'm looking at you Cam, Blayke and Toby)

Moylan puts in a shocker but chases hard to try and mitigate the damage, Ronnie turns a handover 35 out into a zero tackle 10m out, but some middles are lazy and don't chase. End result on the stat sheet is Ronnie copping an error. Great play Ronnie. From a coaching point of view that's something you pat a guy on the back for. If he makes 5 of these in a season and ends up with 5 more errors than some other bloke who didn't put in that 1% extra effort it would be silly to look at the EOY stats and say that Ronnie makes more errors than that guy.

Here is the play I'm talking about.

https://imgur.com/tskpVKA

I mean as a statistic, how would you get benefit from the data? I do think looking at plays with that perspective makes a lot of sense, I'm just wondering about gathering that data and how you can make it add value in a practical sense. Start pointing out the guys who aren't making enough positive errors?

 

[BurgoShark]

I mean as a statistic, how would you get benefit from the data? I do think looking at plays with that perspective makes a lot of sense, I'm just wondering about gathering that data and how you can make it add value in a practical sense. Start pointing out the guys who aren't making enough positive errors?

Haha probably not. It's the omission that is the meaningful stat.

Positive plays in general though. That is definite something that can be measured. I made a decision to just do total positives for backs, but split it up between attack and defence for the forwards (because I didn't measure defence for backs). In hindsight though, I could have included centres in defence, and then split positive/negative between general play and transition for wingers and fullbacks. I'll probably do that for 2024.

Another way to look at it would be where they are making the errors. Everyone knows that Wilton dropped a lot of balls inside the attacking 25 (10 errors in 38 runs) but the flip side of that is Teig does a lot of work coming out of his own end, and had just two errors all season in the other 75 metres of the field (2 errors in 160 runs).

Blue = Dropped ball in contact
Black = got a bad pass
Dark Blue = lost in 1-on-1 strip
Grey = pushed a pass

Once we break this down, despite his reputation for it we see that there aren't actually many plays where Teig just dropped it cold.

 

[Sparkles]

Haha probably not. It's the omission that is the meaningful stat.

Positive plays in general though. That is definite something that can be measured. I made a decision to just do total positives for backs, but split it up between attack and defence for the forwards (because I didn't measure defence for backs). In hindsight though, I could have included centres in defence, and then split positive/negative between general play and transition for wingers and fullbacks. I'll probably do that for 2024.

Another way to look at it would be where they are making the errors. Everyone knows that Wilton dropped a lot of balls inside the attacking 25 (10 errors in 38 runs) but the flip side of that is Teig does a lot of work coming out of his own end, and had just two errors all season in the other 75 metres of the field (2 errors in 160 runs).

Blue = Dropped ball in contact
Black = got a bad pass
Dark Blue = lost in 1-on-1 strip
Grey = pushed a pass

Once we break this down, despite his reputation for it we see that there aren't actually many plays where Teig just dropped it cold.

View attachment 30022

Yeah, that's cool! The spot where Tieg looks to be making the errors is running the suicide line. Which makes sense. Could be helpful in tweaking the play if you can see it's not working too often

 

[Western Sharkie]

Got anything on this Addin character?

 

[bort]

Got anything on this Addin character?

Can't watch every Warriors game twice that quickly!

 

[BurgoShark]

Putting together a new (improved) template for 2024. I’m planning on doing the games week to week instead of waiting until the end of the year - so you should see a game summary each week.

Just like the players, I’ll use the trial games get my game in order. I’m open to suggestions for what people would like to see included. Gotta get in before round 1 though.

Current plan is to include the data from the 2023 game charts, plus add…
- attack BiP vs metres graph like I’ve done in BHU and Toby threads
- error locations like I’ve done above for Teig
- middle forward rotations with errors/penalties like I’ve done in the Toby and Cam threads

Get your requests in now so I can tweak it as needed during the trials…

 

[Proud Shark]

Putting together a new (improved) template for 2024. I’m planning on doing the games week to week instead of waiting until the end of the year - so you should see a game summary each week.

Just like the players, I’ll use the trial games get my game in order. I’m open to suggestions for what people would like to see included. Gotta get in before round 1 though.

Current plan is to include the data from the 2023 game charts, plus add…
- attack BiP vs metres graph like I’ve done in BHU and Toby threads
- error locations like I’ve done above for Teig
- middle forward rotations with errors/penalties like I’ve done in the Toby and Cam threads

Get your requests in now so I can tweak it as needed during the trials…

I'd a comparison vs forum complaint time stamps.

E.g FakeBurgoShark 5.47pm - Talakai is so ****, I can't believe he let that try in all on his own.

Burgoshark -

Tieg's error in good ball at 16.04, compounded by McInnes missing a tackle in the middle at 16.48 and mercury's gravitational pull at this time of year means that Ronnie could have made that tackle more effectively facing backward.

At least that's how I picture it looking.

 

[BurgoShark]

Here are some examples of the stuff I'll start adding on a game by game basis.

This is round 1, 2023 vs Souths.

Attacking Ball in Play vs Metres
Have explained this one elsewhere. Maps the amount of time each player spent on attack against the amount of total metres they ran.

Lots of metres doesn't = a good performance, but a lot of metres in a small opportunity might.

Ditto for very few run metres in a lot of opportunity possibly being an indicator of someone being a little off the pace (or maybe having a higher than normal defensive workload).




Middle Forward Rotations and Error/Penalty times

I changed up the colour scheme on this one a bit to make the grey easier to see.

Blue is an error. Grey is a penalty. Long grey section is a sin bin.





Errors and Penalties - Locations and Timing

This one shows us where on the field an error or penalty was committed. The bracket number is the minute of the game it happened.

Dropped ball in the attacking end and unnecessary midfield penalties were big factors in this one.

A bunch of midfield errors after the 70th minute didn't help the overall completion rate or the comeback effort either.

 

[Sparkles]

Putting together a new (improved) template for 2024. I’m planning on doing the games week to week instead of waiting until the end of the year - so you should see a game summary each week.

Just like the players, I’ll use the trial games get my game in order. I’m open to suggestions for what people would like to see included. Gotta get in before round 1 though.

Current plan is to include the data from the 2023 game charts, plus add…
- attack BiP vs metres graph like I’ve done in BHU and Toby threads
- error locations like I’ve done above for Teig
- middle forward rotations with errors/penalties like I’ve done in the Toby and Cam threads

Get your requests in now so I can tweak it as needed during the trials…

2024 vs 2023 comparisons? Week by week would be interesting to see how a players performance or role has changed or is trending.
That's a good one for SC too

 

[BurgoShark]

2024 vs 2023 comparisons? Week by week would be interesting to see how a players performance or role has changed or is trending.
That's a good one for SC too

So something like this? Add extra columns or dots for "this game, 2023 average, 2024 average"?

Can mock something up later today.