Fancy Stats for 2023

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I'm sure the guy that runs the site doesn't do that, so you must be able to pull them from somewhere.
 

BurgoShark

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Does SC factor possession in to their pricing?

Team possession I mean. They obviously don’t do Ball in Hand.
 

BurgoShark

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Not at all. Price is based off their last years average.
Current price, but it changes once they've played 3 games, right?

How often does it change after that?

Could you get a steal by identifying a player who has had 2-3 down weeks in SC score and had his price drop, but a strong correlation with low BiH?

E.g. Toby from rounds 20-21 got buried in possession. Would his price drop here if his SC score went down?



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Current price, but it changes once they've played 3 games, right?

How often does it change after that?

Could you get a steal by identifying a player who has had 2-3 down weeks in SC score and had his price drop, but a strong correlation with low BiH?

E.g. Toby from rounds 20-21 got buried in possession. Would his price drop here if his SC score went down?



View attachment 30318
So after 3 rounds it works off a 3 round rolling average I believe. So yeah, particularly one really low game BIH will affect the price for 3 weeks till it drops out of the average.
 

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An early injury can be good for dropping a players cost. Give the injury affected score two to three weeks in their rolling average then get in when they bottom out.

Toby lost about 100k there

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Sparkles

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Current price, but it changes once they've played 3 games, right?

How often does it change after that?

Could you get a steal by identifying a player who has had 2-3 down weeks in SC score and had his price drop, but a strong correlation with low BiH?

E.g. Toby from rounds 20-21 got buried in possession. Would his price drop here if his SC score went down?



View attachment 30318
Here's the a good beginners guide with full breakdown of the scoring (plus a picture of Nicho to die for)
 

BurgoShark

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The other question to answer here is whether using BiH is actually going to make a difference for the type of players you are looking at in SC. BiP and BiP are very good for comparing players who play different minutes within a game and for demonstrating consistency, but the more minutes a guy plays the closer his possession stats are going to look to the overall team possession %.

Using team possession might actually be good enough for SC.

Here are Williams and Hunt as an example.

As you can see, a low minute player like Hunt is more chance of deviating from the team percentage, and more also when he deviates he is more likely to have a larger difference (some games there with 8-15% difference, which is huge).

*Note that the scale on the bottom is games (not rounds).

Williams averages a little under half a game. For the most part his possession is close to the team number, with a few late-season swings.

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A player like Hunt whose role can vary and averages less time will have more variance.

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BurgoShark

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If we then look at our highest minute players (the ones more likely to be good SC players) we see very little variation compares to team percentage. This makes sense because they are on the field more, so they get closer to the "overall possession" stat.


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Yeah unless a team regularly had drastically lower BiP than other teams that wouldn’t matter too much. You probably dont want the lower minute guy who’d see big variance.

Good (forward) workers can base well regardless of possession - more tackles instead of runs
But your big scorers with attacking stats, 1,2,5,6,7 sometimes 3&4 too need possession
 

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Yeah unless a team regularly had drastically lower BiP than other teams that wouldn’t matter too much. You probably dont want the lower minute guy who’d see big variance.

Good (forward) workers can base well regardless of possession - more tackles instead of runs
But your big scorers with attacking stats, 1,2,5,6,7 sometimes 3&4 too need possession
That's a good point about BiH. Someone like Cam might even regularly score more without the ball (that's my theory anyway).

Does this show a likelihood of a player being able to increase their average involvement (might be the best way to think about it) in the future? With weight towards attacking involvement though, as that's where the big points are.
 

BurgoShark

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That's a good point about BiH. Someone like Cam might even regularly score more without the ball (that's my theory anyway).
Finally a question I can answer!

You are correct. He generally scores more PPM without the ball and most games his base is comprised more from defensive scores.

* Massive peak here is Bulldogs game where he got a try and a try assist.
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That second graph anyone could have figure out.

The first one requires a BurgoStat subscription :p

Does this show a likelihood of a player being able to increase their average involvement (might be the best way to think about it) in the future? With weight towards attacking involvement though, as that's where the big points are.
What I'd say here is that it might be useful to parlay a Cam-type player in with a player on the same team who gets high attacking points but has a low defensive base (Nicho?). Any game the Sharks get buried in possession you are going to see Cam keep logging shitloads of points at a high rate and it might offset your Nicho losses.

This is kind of what we see when we look at their combined scores. It's not universal across the season, but if you look at games 1, 10, 17 and 18 you see a high Nicho score and a low Cam score - because the Sharks had a lot of ball so Cam's base copped a hit.

Games 6, 12, 13, 14 and 16 were down games for Nicho due to having less ball, but Cam's high scoring in defence made it a good/respectable score overall.

Game 8 they both had shockers (Round 15 v Storm).

To minimise your losses it might be useful to team up your each of your guns with someone on their own team who scores higher when you team doesn't have the ball... but who has the potential for a big game here or there in attack.

* Nicho + Cam/Toby/Blayke ???
* Cleary + Kenny/Yeo???
* Ponga + Jayden/Crossland/Frizzell???
* Drinky + Robson/Cotter???



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Sparkles

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You are correct. He generally scores more PPM without the ball and most games his base is comprised more from defensive scores.
Who needs charts when you have SparkleCoach? :)

That's really interesting. I'm now thinking that if Cam gets more minutes at lock he should be adding to his attacking 'base' more regularly. Combined with his excellent defensive base there could be good value in him and security in that his scoring won't ever really flatline. Just need you to answer if he's starting at lock now!

What I'd say here is that it might be useful to parlay a Cam-type player in with a player on the same team who gets high attacking points but has a low defensive base (Nicho?). Any game the Sharks get buried in possession you are going to see Cam keep logging shitloads of points at a high rate and it might offset your Nicho losses.
A lot of people are looking to run Nicho/Trindall, so that causality would be good to understand, too. Does a high-scoring Trindall game mean Nicho scores less? Or the flipside? Or does Nicho basically do Nicho and Trindall points are just influenced by how well he plays?
To minimise your losses it might be useful to team up your each of your guns with someone on their own team who scores higher when you team doesn't have the ball... but who has the potential for a big game here or there in attack.
Yep, that's really interesting. Especially if one of those players were a cheapie. And most practical if the players aren't in the same position, if you get my meaning. Like the Nicho/Trindall example, you wouldn't want them both in HB as they'll both be out on bye weeks.
 

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What I'd say here is that it might be useful to parlay a Cam-type player in with a player on the same team who gets high attacking points but has a low defensive base (Nicho?). Any game the Sharks get buried in possession you are going to see Cam keep logging shitloads of points at a high rate and it might offset your Nicho losses.

A solid enough theory although the tendency would be to not look past the upside of an alternate signing.

From the Sharks
McInnes 599,600 - 58.7
Ramien 577,300 - 56.5
Ronaldo 627,900 - 61.5
Which of those three is more likely to have a significant bump in their average this season?

Another similarly priced guy I've seen in a few teams
HTF 600,900 - 58.9
For an extra 1000 how much more likely than McInnes is he to noticeably increase his average?

In saying that in the right circumstances McInnes becomes a great buy. A few quiet weeks then Finucane chucks a dale and gets himself injured for 6 weeks.
Cam averaged 61 starting, 56.5 off the bench
Last season he wasn't a great buy to start the season @ 613,000, by his first round named to start he had tanked down to 473,900.
Going on to start the majority of the season from there he ended on 636,500 however peaked over 700k late in the season.
If you watched him start for two weeks and saw him getting slightly better minutes and made a move then he would have averaged 65 from that point on.

Rather than buy a safety blanket it is actually more common to see people double down on string scoring pairs.
Nicho and Nikora, Brown and Lane, Ponga and Best/Marzhew, 2 of Trell/Walker/AJ/(maybe Wighton this season).
if you splashed the extra 50k to get Nikora last season instead of Cam you'd actually have got nearly 50% more points (1670 for 2023 instead of 1292) even if there were likely weeks both scored not their best on the same week.

Yep, that's really interesting. Especially if one of those players were a cheapie. And most practical if the players aren't in the same position, if you get my meaning. Like the Nicho/Trindall example, you wouldn't want them both in HB as they'll both be out on bye weeks.
Now you're talking - a cheap 'workhorse' / strong base guy will always be a great buy though regardless of whether you have others from his club.
Specifically to Trindall though he averaged 43 but 50.5 starting. If you ignore his two worst scores starting (his first two week backs starting later in season, vs Manly then Penrith) he averaged 59. If you thought that was a fair way to assess his scoring last season he is almost 200k underpriced for this year.
Although he doesn't fit exactly what Burgo was describing as you could definitely have weeks both Hynes and Trindall kill it in attack or flop, they wouldn't consistently safety net eachother by having good attack to one side if the other isn't getting opportunities.
Definitely can't run them both at halfback, like you say.
 

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* Nicho + Cam/Toby/Blayke ???
* Cleary + Kenny/Yeo???
* Ponga + Jayden/Crossland/Frizzell???
* Drinky + Robson/Cotter???
Per your actual examples
  • these Sharks players are too 'safe' for SC unless you suspect one is likely to go to a new level / role.
  • Yeo is a good scorer and very safe but you wouldn't want to pay full price for him. Kenny averages too low unless you suspected more upside to come
  • Jayden if he gets good minutes is well priced now, like Crossland was last season if you got on him at the right time. Both risks currently until minutes are clear. Friz is an interesting one, average has been solid the last couple of years and bases well but moving to left edge could add relevant amount of attacking stats
  • If you back the cowboys resurgence both Robson and Cotter are of interest, Robson average was down 10 from 2022 and Cotter was down 6 when many thought he'd actually be more likely to improve. Both have shown they can play better than they did last season so there is upside in their price.

If you view a guy as a season keeper their price is kind of irrelevant. If you are gunna get a guy round 1 and intend never to sell him whether his price stays still (like for a Hynes or Clearly gun) or goes up is irrelevant. But most guys your looking for their price to go up because that shows their scoring is - if you wanna keep someone or wanna sell them down the line either way scoring increasing is ideal.
 

BurgoShark

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Rather than buy a safety blanket it is actually more common to see people double down on string scoring pairs.
Nicho and Nikora, Brown and Lane, Ponga and Best/Marzhew, 2 of Trell/Walker/AJ/(maybe Wighton this season).
if you splashed the extra 50k to get Nikora last season instead of Cam you'd actually have got nearly 50% more points (1670 for 2023 instead of 1292) even if there were likely weeks both scored not their best on the same week.
OK - so there isn't necessarily much value in knowing where a player's base is coming from (attack/defence) - since it is the total that you are concerned with... other than that they may actually be players to avoid because they spend time doing things that don't score highly in SC (for them, more team attacking opportunity doesn't necessarily equate to more attacking points for the player).

i.e. For a player who splits their points to a greater share of defence, total minutes is a good enough indicator.
(we don't need the first graph because the second one gives us enough information).

For a player who feasts on attacking points though (not a gun) it might be helpful to know whether an up or down trend is related to possession??


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OK - so there isn't necessarily much value in knowing where a player's base is coming from (attack/defence) - since it is the total that you are concerned with... other than that they may actually be players to avoid because they spend time doing things that don't score highly in SC (for them, more team attacking opportunity doesn't necessarily equate to more attacking points for the player).

i.e. For a player who splits their points to a greater share of defence, total minutes is a good enough indicator.
(we don't need the first graph because the second one gives us enough information).
For props and non-gun edge forwards this is true. Forwards are less likely to have high attacking upside so you will trend towards guys who base well to fill out a lot of your spots.

These guys won't reliably get attacking stats so a consistent base score is sufficient, regardless of source. If they have the minutes they should hit a decent base every week. More possession increases the chance of attacking stats, but they are probably not guys you expect those from regardless, so any are a happy bonus.

For your 'gun' edge forwards good base stats mean their weak rounds are still solid (equivalent of midrange guys mentioned above) but you are expected them to get attacking stats regularly enough to have a high top end.

The variable here would be someone like a Nanai who can have a massive score ceiling but his base is mediocre so rounds Cows don't have good possession he scores sub par.
6 of Nanai's 13 scores were below Fifita's lowest (not counting a cameo appearance by Fifita around origin).
Could be worth a shot if you think his price has bottomed out after a few bad weeks and Cows have a nice run of games coming though.

Payne Haas is a bit of an exception as a prop he is still a gun just because his base is so high, it doesn't take much for his score to get quite high. Despite very few scoring/creative stats he scores really strongly most weeks.
He averaged only 8 points under Fifita even though Fifita outscored Haas' best score 7 times. Ceiling is low but floor is really high.

You could say AFB is a gun prop also and he bases quite well but is much more reliant on attacking stats - Haas averaged 1 point better than him but Haas only had 63 for the season in Scoring and Creative points, AFB had 208 (in 4 more games). If Warriors and Broncos both started struggling you'd expect Haas is much better of the two to have as AFBs attack dries up.

For a player who feasts on attacking points though (not a gun) it might be helpful to know whether an up or down trend is related to possession??
I don't think there would be many forwards who are a non-gun that can feast on attacking points. This could be Nanai though, or someone like Bryce Cartwright.
Otherwise commonly a winger a who does bugger all in base but can score a heap of tries.
Especially with the winger this would be a 'match up dependent' guy. When his team have a game they should win you include him in your scoring players, if you think his team have a pretty tough game you maybe look elsewhere because you know unless he gets a try his score will be ****.
 
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