Fancy Stats for 2023

BurgoShark

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For props and non-gun edge forwards this is true. Forwards are less likely to have high attacking upside so you will trend towards guys who base well to fill out a lot of your spots.

These guys won't reliably get attacking stats so a consistent base score is sufficient, regardless of source. If they have the minutes they should hit a decent base every week. More possession increases the chance of attacking stats, but they are probably not guys you expect those from regardless, so any are a happy bonus.

For your 'gun' edge forwards good base stats mean their weak rounds are still solid (equivalent of midrange guys mentioned above) but you are expected them to get attacking stats regularly enough to have a high top end.

The variable here would be someone like a Nanai who can have a massive score ceiling but his base is mediocre so rounds Cows don't have good possession he scores sub par.
6 of Nanai's 13 scores were below Fifita's lowest (not counting a cameo appearance by Fifita around origin).
Could be worth a shot if you think his price has bottomed out after a few bad weeks and Cows have a nice run of games coming though.

Payne Haas is a bit of an exception as a prop he is still a gun just because his base is so high, it doesn't take much for his score to get quite high. Despite very few scoring/creative stats he scores really strongly most weeks.
He averaged only 8 points under Fifita even though Fifita outscored Haas' best score 7 times. Ceiling is low but floor is really high.

You could say AFB is a gun prop also and he bases quite well but is much more reliant on attacking stats - Haas averaged 1 point better than him but Haas only had 63 for the season in Scoring and Creative points, AFB had 208 (in 4 more games). If Warriors and Broncos both started struggling you'd expect Haas is much better of the two to have as AFBs attack dries up.


I don't think there would be many forwards who are a non-gun that can feast on attacking points. This could be Nanai though, or someone like Bryce Cartwright.
Otherwise commonly a winger a who does bugger all in base but can score a heap of tries.
Especially with the winger this would be a 'match up dependent' guy. When his team have a game they should win you include him in your scoring players, if you think his team have a pretty tough game you maybe look elsewhere because you know unless he gets a try his score will be ****.
Cheers.

I think I'm still getting my head around locks being considered second rowers and not middles.

So how can possession stats help? Just in determining when to buy/sell once the 3-game average kicks in?

I think collecting BiP time for the entire league is a bridge too far (just too much time) but using league-wide stats and adjusting for team possession might be doable as an alternative to re-watching and doing only Sharks games in great detail. How could that be presented to be helpful to the SC boffins?
 

Sparkles

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For a player who feasts on attacking points though (not a gun) it might be helpful to know whether an up or down trend is related to possession??
I don't think possession is a quantity we can use to predict a performance in SC. Playing a guy because he's stepping into a starting role and we know his PPM is great at bigger minutes we can, for example. Not playing a guy because he always scores badly when his half is out is another one.

Maybe you could look at possession rates per team and predict better performances based on BiH against teams with lower average possession? This may be grasping a bit... and because it's so heavily skewed towards attacking stats maybe most players do better (except Cam!).

OK - so there isn't necessarily much value in knowing where a player's base is coming from (attack/defence) - since it is the total that you are concerned with... other than that they may actually be players to avoid because they spend time doing things that don't score highly in SC (for them, more team attacking opportunity doesn't necessarily equate to more attacking points for the player).
Knowing their base (based mostly around defensive work) is important because you'll know that players floor and the amount of risk they represent. When you pick a guy, you're stuck with him for a while unless you get trade happy, and that'll just make you sad in the long run. You might, though, pick a guy with attacking upside based on a run of promising games (against lower tier teams say).
People use this page to work out which teams to play certain players against- https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com/posnvsteam.php?year=2023

There are exceptions... Alex Johnson springs to mind. I think I had him for the whole season in 2021. If he didn't score tried he'd score 15 pts in a game... but he almost always scored tries, and lots of them.
 

Sparkles

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For props and non-gun edge forwards this is true. Forwards are less likely to have high attacking upside so you will trend towards guys who base well to fill out a lot of your spots.

These guys won't reliably get attacking stats so a consistent base score is sufficient, regardless of source. If they have the minutes they should hit a decent base every week. More possession increases the chance of attacking stats, but they are probably not guys you expect those from regardless, so any are a happy bonus.

For your 'gun' edge forwards good base stats mean their weak rounds are still solid (equivalent of midrange guys mentioned above) but you are expected them to get attacking stats regularly enough to have a high top end.

The variable here would be someone like a Nanai who can have a massive score ceiling but his base is mediocre so rounds Cows don't have good possession he scores sub par.
6 of Nanai's 13 scores were below Fifita's lowest (not counting a cameo appearance by Fifita around origin).
Could be worth a shot if you think his price has bottomed out after a few bad weeks and Cows have a nice run of games coming though.

Payne Haas is a bit of an exception as a prop he is still a gun just because his base is so high, it doesn't take much for his score to get quite high. Despite very few scoring/creative stats he scores really strongly most weeks.
He averaged only 8 points under Fifita even though Fifita outscored Haas' best score 7 times. Ceiling is low but floor is really high.

You could say AFB is a gun prop also and he bases quite well but is much more reliant on attacking stats - Haas averaged 1 point better than him but Haas only had 63 for the season in Scoring and Creative points, AFB had 208 (in 4 more games). If Warriors and Broncos both started struggling you'd expect Haas is much better of the two to have as AFBs attack dries up.


I don't think there would be many forwards who are a non-gun that can feast on attacking points. This could be Nanai though, or someone like Bryce Cartwright.
Otherwise commonly a winger a who does bugger all in base but can score a heap of tries.
Especially with the winger this would be a 'match up dependent' guy. When his team have a game they should win you include him in your scoring players, if you think his team have a pretty tough game you maybe look elsewhere because you know unless he gets a try his score will be ****.
haha I think I'm just going to wait until I read your posts before I bother typing out practically the same thoughts
 

bort

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Few ideas that come to mind
  • team has a run of unusually low possession, has that dragged down anyone of interests price? They could be a good buy as they are scoring low through circumstances, not personal bad form
  • If one of your players has a good run of scoring, but say possession or BiP for him was up 20% but scoring was only up 10% perhaps you look at taking the price rise sooner rather than reading it as him improving form so you wanna keep riding it. If his form is up he would keep scoring well when possession adjusts, but the disparity between the 20% and 10% suggests the price/score bump is purely due to more ball, which he may not be the cause for
  • If a player changes role (ie bench middle to starter) usually you assess if you think they’ll have consistent or more minutes, but you could include if they might have consistent or more possession or BiP - BiP relevant to everyone, possession even more so to guys with attacking upside. This would matter more for BiP/possession at stage of the game than overall
 

BurgoShark

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Ok. So for the outcome you could get from it, sounds to me like the effort doesn’t justify it.
 

bort

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Ok. So for the outcome you could get from it, sounds to me like the effort doesn’t justify it.
Probably not to track
But perhaps as a tool to check

Maybe some things like
This team has had a run of low/high possession, does that do anything interesting to prices?

This guys scoring is better, why? Because his base is up, why? Possession is typical and no other obvious factor, he might just be working harder

This middle is moving from the bench to a start, they have a good sub to come onto bench meaning minutes might not go up to much so will he actually see elevated BiP in the first 20 than he would coming on for the second 20
 
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