Yeah CTW just jumped out at me as particularly likely to need multiple changes - but everyone is just shot in the dark atm. Hell, no guarantee Xerri makes the side, but I also have him too.
I think everyone is pretty keen to see a couple must have cheapie CTWs emerge from trials/TLT to help give some flexibility.
Arthars is a good priced one I like (provided, of course, named!), in saying that if named probably 80% will have him (like Xerri).
I think common approach currently is like you say, chase spine guns, load up on mids and cheaps in 2RF and CTW and at don't spend too high at prop unless you go all the way up to Haas. I'm eyeing off Flegler and May for my prop starters currently.