Fancy Stats for 2023

[apezza]

It actually took a lot for me to use that stat. I trust them on tackles but I hate the way they record missed tackles. I'll probably end up revising that...

According to nrl.com:

Player runs sideways; defender chases hard, runs him in to a dead end, dives and misses him as 2 other guys get him = 1 miss.
Ruck defence shits the bed and winger is left defending a 3 on 1. He dives at the eventual try-scorer in desperation = 1 miss.
Defender doesn't move up and throws out a lazy arm as a guy runs past him to score = 1 miss.

Yeh that's crap.

 

[CHOGM]

It actually took a lot for me to use that stat. I trust them on tackles but I hate the way they record missed tackles. I'll probably end up revising that...

According to nrl.com:

Player runs sideways; defender chases hard, runs him in to a dead end, dives and misses him as 2 other guys get him = 1 miss.
Ruck defence shits the bed and winger is left defending a 3 on 1. He dives at the eventual try-scorer in desperation = 1 miss.
Defender doesn't move up and throws out a lazy arm as a guy runs past him to score = 1 miss.

That's good to know, I've always been suss on missed tackles stats. Players can get penalised for huge effort plays that help the team as you've illustrated.

Is there a distinction to be made between a missing an expected tackle and missing an extra effort tackle? Or missing tackles when recieving the attacker as opposed to pursuing the attacker? Trindall racing out of the line and missing is very different to Moylan standing there and missing like a turnstile.

 

[BurgoShark]

That's good to know, I've always been suss on missed tackles stats. Players can get penalised for huge effort plays that help the team as you've illustrated.

Is there a distinction to be made between a missing an expected tackle and missing an extra effort tackle? Or missing tackles when recieving the attacker as opposed to pursuing the attacker? Trindall racing out of the line and missing is very different to Moylan standing there and missing like a turnstile.

I don't know if you can make that distinction, because either could be considered a defensive error.

The ones I've always been suss on are the "prop is in perfect kick chase line but can't catch a fullback running across the field" or "hold your line and the ball carrier runs 30m across field palming people (hello Jack Bird)".

The whole thing is just so subjective. I'm pretty sure Colquhoun would have been assigned a missed tackle for a late forlorn dive on the Roosters deflection try. He had 0% chance of ever making that tackle, but he tried anyway. That's a positive play imo.

 

[Vichyssoise]

Wow! Amazing stuff, mate. Thank you for taking the time to do this.

Now get on your bike and do game 2!

 

[BurgoShark]

Wow! Amazing stuff, mate. Thank you for taking the time to do this.

Now get on your bike and do game 2!

Cheers.

I’m going to break the order and do the last game then come back rd2.

 

[BurgoShark]

This is the sort of thing I am talking about with missed tackles.

This would go down as a missed or ineffective tackle by Brailey, but it's a defensive error from Hynes. He runs out of the line and leaves a hold for Teddy to run through. Brailey does a great job to close the gap but can't wrap the legs. Poor play from Hynes and good play from Brailey... but Brailey cops the negative stat.

https://imgur.com/HrTUqxQ

 

[BurgoShark]

Finals Week 1
Notes for the Graph-challenged:
* Colquhoun and Hazelton heavily involved in very limited stints. Otherwise very similar output from the entire pack. They shared the load around well.
* Big change in the way this game was played. A lot more involvement from middles inside their own end
* Despite the late error, Toby is a horse
* Bigger minutes for Williams and McInnes bring them back to the rest of the bunch

 

[HaroldBishop]

This is the sort of thing I am talking about with missed tackles.

This would go down as a missed or ineffective tackle by Brailey, but it's a defensive error from Hynes. He runs out of the line and leaves a hold for Teddy to run through. Brailey does a great job to close the gap but can't wrap the legs. Poor play from Hynes and good play from Brailey... but Brailey cops the negative stat.

https://imgur.com/HrTUqxQ

Agree with that. So many people rely on stats these days rather than believing what they see.

 

[Vichyssoise]

Agree with that. So many people rely on stats these days rather than believing what they see.

A rather bold statement considering the thread title.

 

[BurgoShark]

A rather bold statement considering the thread title.

Haha true, but correct.

The reason I started doing this was to demonstrate how bad using stats are for evaluating player performance.

Then after doing it for a while I realised it is a really useful way to compare player usage, involvement and role. This doesn’t tell me who played better, but it does give me some insight in to how the coach sees the players and how the team tactics can change based on personnel, opposition or just the flow of the game.

 

[bort]

Agree with that. So many people rely on stats these days rather than believing what they see.

What happens if I see the stats?

But also a lot of people see what they want to see, which doesn’t make it fact either.

And I do that as well, somethings you have to rewatch something to properly follow what happened. Although sometimes it’s just biased and people see it wrong differently regardless.

 

[BurgoShark]

What happens if I see the stats?

But also a lot of people see what they want to see, which doesn’t make it fact either.

And I do that as well, somethings you have to rewatch something to properly follow what happened. Although sometimes it’s just biased and people see it wrong differently regardless.

I think this conversation was specifically about missed tackles. Well my part in it was anyway.

What I am opposed to is statements like “player X is a better defender than player Y because he missed less tackles”.

 

[BurgoShark]

What happens if I see the stats?

But also a lot of people see what they want to see, which doesn’t make it fact either.

And I do that as well, somethings you have to rewatch something to properly follow what happened. Although sometimes it’s just biased and people see it wrong differently regardless.

A good example of that is the Colquhoun one vs the Knights (I posted this to his thread). They just saw what they perceived as a missed tackle and bagged the bloke. I reckon I saw/heard at least a dozen references to this missed tackle being the cause of the break either on the forum, articles, podcasts etc.

There are three players in the vicinity here. Of the three, Colquhoun has the least chance of tackling Ponga, but puts in the most effort. Hazelton and Williams are forum/fan favourites though, so people see what they want to see and bag the other bloke. No stats required.

As you said, people may have subsequently re-watched and changed their mind on this one.

All in all it's just another example of a situation showing that not all "missed tackles" are negative plays. Colquhoun's contribution here was an effort play which "herded" Ponga into an area where two other players should have been able to stop him, but didn't.

If people think Colquhoun should be quick enough to catch Ponga running across field here, they are setting the bar too high.

https://imgur.com/dviKjXf

 

[Western Sharkie]

Cheers.

For the Souths game...

1) Ronnie is less involved than the rest of the back 5.
2) Our centres are hitup machines inside our 20
3) Brailey does more defensive work than any other 80 minute player, and his attacking involvement is just a little under Nikora's.
4) Rudolf and Finucane can both maintain a high involvement in both attack and defence for long minutes.
5) BHU and Kaufusi can maintain the same level of attacking involvement, but for less minutes and with less defensive workload
6) Williams and McInnes are absolute animals when used off the bench in short spurts.

Cheat sheet for this one is to visualise it based on role.
- Backs will be on a corridor on the left. Lots of runs, bugger all tackles. A big game will push them higher.
- Hookers and edge forwards usually won't go very high for runs, but will push more to the right if they have a big defensive game
- Middles you want as close to the top right as possible. Usually lower minute guys will look better



View attachment 29486

Someone graffiti’d on your graph @BurgoShark

 

[Sparkles]

A good example of that is the Colquhoun one vs the Knights (I posted this to his thread). They just saw what they perceived as a missed tackle and bagged the bloke. I reckon I saw/heard at least a dozen references to this missed tackle being the cause of the break either on the forum, articles, podcasts etc.

There are three players in the vicinity here. Of the three, Colquhoun has the least chance of tackling Ponga, but puts in the most effort. Hazelton and Williams are forum/fan favourites though, so people see what they want to see and bag the other bloke. No stats required.

As you said, people may have subsequently re-watched and changed their mind on this one.

All in all it's just another example of a situation showing that not all "missed tackles" are negative plays. Colquhoun's contribution here was an effort play which "herded" Ponga into an area where two other players should have been able to stop him, but didn't.

If people think Colquhoun should be quick enough to catch Ponga running across field here, they are setting the bar too high.

https://imgur.com/dviKjXf

That and Ponga is just an out and out freak sometimes. The jink, step and speed he showed in that clip would have burnt many a decent footballer.

 

[HaroldBishop]

That and Ponga is just an out and out freak sometimes. The jink, step and speed he showed in that clip would have burnt many a decent footballer.

Not Chad!

 

[BurgoShark]

Round 2 vs Parra
* Finucane big minutes and heavy involvement.
* McInnes massive involvement in attack
* Hunt heavily involved in a short burst.
* Talakai a yardage monster again

 

[Ronnie]

Really good stuff, very interesting. Thanks mate

 

[BurgoShark]

... and just for fun here is Kaufusi's progress. He's looking pretty consistent across the 3 games I modelled so far.

I'll keep using him as my example because he does stuff in lots of different ways, but I will eventually do one of these for each player across the entire season.

 

[BurgoShark]

Round 16 vs Bulldogs
I already had a lot of the data for Rd 15, 16 and 21 because I'd already modelled them -so will do those next.

* I had to adjust the scale (Y axis) on this Attack v Defence chart to fit Tommy in. His performance was literally off the chart.
* I've removed backs who play 80 minutes from the other one. It was just making things messy and wasn't adding any useful info.
* A lot of kick returns for Kennedy in this one, which meant less hit-ups inside 20 for the rest of the back 5.
* Brailey was heavily involved in the attack in this game, but adjusted for minutes and possession it was actually in line with his other regular season performance (i.e. he has about the same amount of runs per minute of possession, but the Sharks just had lots of possession in that game).
* Kaufusi right in his wheelhouse again, although he played bigger minutes this game. I reckon at the end of the season his AvD graph is going to look like Stuart Clark's bowling heat map.