Official Dale Finucane

[Sparkles]

Not saying he can't get better or re find his form, don't care about his age just his performances.

But coming out of a very successful Storm team, has played Origin, is on decent coin - there are expectations around that

He is important to this team on proviso he is playing well. We need him to own that middle ruck area. Even if his hitups arn't always that impactful he can get a quick ptb and not gunna lie and say that hasn't helped get some good outcomes for us.

Leadership is difficult to measure objectively but there are times we really lacked it, that's not on Dale alone, also our other senior players and our 7

Believe me I want him to do well for us, we need him to.

I believe you mate

Just need him on the field. Or one of our other forwards to take up the mantle. I'm cool either way!

 

[HaroldBishop]

Yeah the constant disruptions are the annoying part. If he can stay on the field there are no issues for mine.

 

[Deleted member 2543]

I'm sure you've said it before, but there are a lot of stat posts to go through.

What is the drop off point for Dale/Cam/Toby? And by 25 minutes do you mean in a stint, or over the game?

Ball in play.

Toby averages 29. Only game he dropped off was the finals game when he played way too much (no BHU or Dale, Tom injury).

Cam and Dale average 34. Dale rarely plays more than 40. Cam drops off after that in attack but is just as good defensively.

I don't mean to say that I have cracked some secret code here with the model, but in terms of what makes a forward "good", not missing tackles or shirking their job when they are tired is pretty important.

Looking at the two extremes in the team, if you play McInnes and BHU for 15 minutes each they are going to take just as many runs, tackle just as often, and constantly make their way back inside their half to run the ball. If you play them for 30, BHU's defensive workload will drop off by 50%, he'll miss 15% more tackles, and he won't take any runs inside his half. In my opinion both these players are valuable to the team, but the one who can play either role and can maintain his work rate is the better (and more rare) player.

 

[Sparkles]

Cam and Dale average 34. Dale rarely plays more than 40.

Any idea of Dale's average minutes in his later Storm years? Not sure if the 34 mins is how he usually rolls, is affected by injury, etc or part of our plan (if we had a steady run-on side to allow our preferred plan to be in place)?

 

[Deleted member 2543]

So Dale is better at being mediocre and involved over longer minutes than other players - nice

We all watch the Sharks games (I assume). If you don't think there is a difference between his early 2022 performances and what we have got from him since then well that's fine but I know what I see. He was really good for us initially and gave us what we recruited him for.

Couple of down games in rounds 10 and 11, and his miss on Cam Murray in the finals last year was piss-weak. Outside of that Dale was the same player in 2023 as early 2022.

E.g. 6 tries were scored off Finucane ptb's in round 18 (but one was disallowed).

You probably weren't watching that though.

Speaking of the eye test, McInnes and Williams were much better players around those middle and lock roles in 2023 than Dale. They had a real influence on our team. Dale just did what any bloke on half his wage could do just for a bit longer.

Williams plays a very different role to Finucane. In the Sharks structure I would say Williams almost never plays lock, and when he does it is a little clunky.

I acknowledge he has had time out of the team which doesn't help form and consistency wise but those suspensions are on him. Injury is unlucky but all players face that.

Wouldn't mind seeing his defensive/tackle stats over his Sharks career. His tackle % started out in that Tolman like Goldilocks zone of mid to high 90% but then he was in the mid to high 80% later on. Stats aren't everything and there can be reasons not his fault (like other forwards not aiming up) but seeing as we are talking stats to justify Dale not being meh....

This is Cam and Dale for games with 26-40 mins ball in play. Dale was 92%. Cam 93%.

If he were currently playing for another team would we bother to offer him a contract to come here?
We went ok without him thanks to other forwards stepping up

Did we?

Sharks got flogged 5 times this season. 3 were without Dale and one was with him on the bench. The fifth one had nothing to do with the forwards going good or bad. The backs kept dropping it in their own half and giving piggy-back penalties.

 

[Deleted member 2543]

Any idea of Dale's average minutes in his later Storm years? Not sure if the 34 mins is how he usually rolls, is affected by injury, etc or part of our plan (if we had a steady run-on side to allow our preferred plan to be in place)?

34 minutes ball in play is equivalent to 48-52 minutes of actual game time (depending on how the game goes) which is similar to what he played from 2020-2022.

 

[Gards]

Ok is a relative term, we were still the Sharks and had problems, defense being a big one and inability to go with the top teams.

Dale in or out, doubt it makes a difference to those results. We have been belted with him in the team as well I'm pretty sure and he isn't going to prevent some of our disasters (like Dolphins game) alone.

If he were still playing like early 2022 I don't think many fans would be complaining about him. He really was better then watching the live games.

I mean there's probably some stats that could paint a picture that McInnes was the same throughout 2023 if you look at involvements ect but watching the games he clearly had a better mid to later part of the season.

 

[bort]

Looking at the two extremes in the team, if you play McInnes and BHU for 15 minutes each they are going to take just as many runs, tackle just as often, and constantly make their way back inside their half to run the ball. If you play them for 30, BHU's defensive workload will drop off by 50%, he'll miss 15% more tackles, and he won't take any runs inside his half. In my opinion both these players are valuable to the team, but the one who can play either role and can maintain his work rate is the better (and more rare) player.

I don’t think a 15 minute (bip) BHU role is being played by Cam probably ever.
He might be on for just 15 mins bip for whatever reason but he’s not putting on some of our teams bigger hits, returning kicks, trampling over fullbacks on the tryline etc

The extra 25kgs make a big difference in what BHU can do in a short stint vs what McInnes can do

 

[Deleted member 2543]

I don’t think a 15 minute (bip) BHU role is being played by Cam probably ever.
He might be on for just 15 mins bip for whatever reason but he’s not putting on some of our teams bigger hits, returning kicks, trampling over fullbacks on the tryline etc

The extra 25kgs make a big difference in what BHU can do in a short stint vs what McInnes can do

Oh for sure. You need those guys, but it's a lot easier to find them than it is to find the guy who can do it for longer... and while those moments are important, they aren't any more important than a 4m run off your own try-line when you are under the pump, or the tip on play get the big uit 1-on-1 with the fullback. The best players are the ones who make the highlight reel and take the hard carries.

The reason Fifita was so frikkin' good and deserved the big bucks is because he could do all of those things for 50+ minutes without slowing down. It's probably also (I think) a reason why Fitz loves Jesse so much. He's got a Cam/Dale motor in a 110kg+ chassis and can pass better than both of them.

btw... Cam's lowest minutes this year was round 1. He had 19 minutes (bip) across three separate stints. It was his highest involvement in any game. 30% higher than BHU's attacking average and 10% higher than his best attacking game.

 

[Deleted member 2543]

Ok is a relative term, we were still the Sharks and had problems, defense being a big one and inability to go with the top teams.

Dale in or out, doubt it makes a difference to those results. We have been belted with him in the team as well I'm pretty sure and he isn't going to prevent some of our disasters (like Dolphins game) alone.

FYI over the last two seasons the Sharks have lost just 2 games by more than 10 points with Finucane starting and finishing healthy.

Semi final v Rabbitohs 2022 and Rd 15 vs Storm 2023

Agree though that he couldn't have helped some of the other floggings all alone.

If he were still playing like early 2022 I don't think many fans would be complaining about him. He really was better then watching the live games.

I mean there's probably some stats that could paint a picture that McInnes was the same throughout 2023 if you look at involvements ect but watching the games he clearly had a better mid to later part of the season.

I think a lot of this is recency bias. Once Dale got injured Cam played more, so people remember him "doing more stuff".

It's similar to how people will bag a bloke who has a great game but drops the ball in the 77th minute. People have longer-lasting memories of the stuff that happens later in games, and later in a season.

I'm not just "collecting stats" btw. I've re-watched every game at least twice since the season finished (all sober). In my opinion from watching the games McInnes played just as well all season, except for against the Raiders in round 3 when he got hooked.

The purpose of the model is to demonstrate things that are not just my opinion.

 

[Sparkles]

FYI over the last two seasons the Sharks have lost just 2 games by more than 10 points with Finucane starting and finishing healthy.

So a 33% win rate?

 

[bort]

Oh for sure. You need those guys, but it's a lot easier to find them than it is to find the guy who can do it for longer... and while those moments are important, they aren't any more important than a 4m run off your own try-line when you are under the pump. The best players are the ones who make the highlight reel and take the hard carries.

The reason Fifita was so frikkin' good and deserved the big bucks is because he could do all of those things for 50+ minutes without slowing down. It's probably also (I think) a reason why Fitz loves Jesse so much. He's got a Cam/Dale motor in a 110kg+ chassis.

btw... Cam's lowest minutes this year was round 1. He had 19 minutes (bip) across three separate stints. It was his highest involvement in any game. 30% higher than BHU's attacking average and 10% higher than his best attacking game.

Cam's not doing it for longer, he's not doing it at all (imo)
They are completely different roles in my eyes, even Cam's round 1 you mention was his highest involvement, 30% higher than BHUs attacking average. BHU had the same number of runs but made 24% more meters. Yeah in more minutes and yeah Cam made more tackles too.
A 4m run off your own try line into the teeth of the defence may be valuable, but a 5m could be even better.

Both important, just different - I just don't find those two guys very comparable. I'd never ask those two guys to swap roles.
Dale for example I think can do both roles, I am happy to compare him to either McInnes, or props.

A guy who can run like BHU but at Cam's workrate is definitely rare, Fifita good example. They are also expensive. More expensive than Dale who many are complaining about (including myself to an extent). Dale for sure hasn't hit all expectation but doubt we'd have anyone better for same or less $.

 

[bort]

Poor Dale, being hammered on here and being used in NRL highlight video for a tackle which he was HIA'd for (and Whitehead sin binned)

Not Found | Fox Sports Videos

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Deleted member 2543]

Cam's not doing it for longer, he's not doing it at all (imo)
They are completely different roles in my eyes, even Cam's round 1 you mention was his highest involvement, 30% higher than BHUs attacking average. BHU had the same number of runs but made 24% more meters. Yeah in more minutes and yeah Cam made more tackles too.

Without respect to possession and ball in play "metres" is a fantasy stat mate. Let me take kick returns against the Dragons next time we have 65% possession and I'll run 150 metres (or at least 20 on the first one then go off hurt).

A 4m run off your own try line into the teeth of the defence may be valuable, but a 5m could be even better.

... but still better than the run the other guy didn't take

Both important, just different - I just don't find those two guys very comparable. I'd never ask those two guys to swap roles.

For a few games it appears that the coach did ask Cam to play this role. Not the "running over blokes" bit, but I'd say rounds 1-3 McInnes was very much playing as a mobile bench prop. Cart it up and very little passing or involvement in attacking shape.

From round 4 once Jack had his legs under him he took that role back and Cam started playing differently.

I'd also say that there were games where I thought there were games prior to his injury where BHU was playing a lot more like a lock than McInnes was in attack. He never played like that after round 9 though.

I agree though that these normally aren't comparable players/roles.

Dale for example I think can do both roles, I am happy to compare him to either McInnes, or props.

A guy who can run like BHU but at Cam's workrate is definitely rare, Fifita good example. They are also expensive. More expensive than Dale who many are complaining about (including myself to an extent). Dale for sure hasn't hit all expectation but doubt we'd have anyone better for same or less $.

Agreed.

 

[bort]

Without respect to possession and ball in play "metres" is a fantasy stat mate. Let me take kick returns against the Dragons next time we have 65% possession and I'll run 150 metres (or at least 20 on the first one then go off hurt).

Every stat is a fantasy stat without context. Except BIP, it’s even less. It helps provide some context to other stats, sure. But nobody* besides you is ever gunna say "damn did you see Nicho Hynes win us that World Cup final? Can't believe he pulled off so many minutes ball in play, incredible."
Every stat needs context. (*broadly speaking they may refer to speed of game or lack of stoppages though)

The more context the better, you've been bringing in quite a bit of different numbers to combine with BIP - it's good.
You also have enough rewatches to add some good less tangible context too, which I appreciate.

But if BHU crashes in a stack of kick return meters vs the dragons then great, that sounds like it is helping us win.
Cam did some hard yards too? Cool he’s good at those and I expect contributing to us winning too.

Largely speaking we've gone off topic which was just that Cam and BHU aren't really great to compare in my opinion - especially for a short stint.
One can be viewed as a better player, forward or even middle than the other but I will be comparing that more to output vs my perceived role for them, not directly vs the other. Maybe a few games one passed the ball a bit more, the other took some straight hit ups... I'll question my broader perception more if Cam is ever named in 8 and BHU in 13/14 in an otherwise fully fit middle. For now when I look at your mapping efforts I won't glance directly from Cam to see where BHU's dots are because for how I value their impact I don't need to compare them to each other. Cam one vs Dale though, definitely interesting.

... but still better than the run the other guy didn't take

Everything is hypothetically better (and worse) than the guy who didn't take it. BHUs longer runs were presumably better than the same run Cam didn't take. Schrodinger's hit up.

 

[Sharkfox]

Trade him if he's not firing next season. Let go of two middles next year

 

[HaroldBishop]

Trade him if he's not firing next season. Let go of two middles next year

He's on sfa for his last season.

 

[Sparkles]

Poor Dale, being hammered on here and being used in NRL highlight video for a tackle which he was HIA'd for (and Whitehead sin binned)

Not Found | Fox Sports Videos

www.foxsports.com.au

He was cut by the NRL, now I hope he gets a cut from the NRL.

And if our guys are in the highlight reel, the Sharks should be over there too! Add clips of Chad on Ponga, Wade on Ponga and Lewis... on Ponga... (gaaang baaang!) and we're the most bloodthirsty club around!

 

[Deleted member 2543]

Largely speaking we've gone off topic which was just that Cam and BHU aren't really great to compare in my opinion - especially for a short stint.
One can be viewed as a better player, forward or even middle than the other but I will be comparing that more to output vs my perceived role for them, not directly vs the other. Maybe a few games one passed the ball a bit more, the other took some straight hit ups... I'll question my broader perception more if Cam is ever named in 8 and BHU in 13/14 in an otherwise fully fit middle. For now when I look at your mapping efforts I won't glance directly from Cam to see where BHU's dots are because for how I value their impact I don't need to compare them to each other. Cam one vs Dale though, definitely interesting.

Yeah agree. I was moreso using those two guys as a way to explain the actual chart to someone.

Measuring involvement tells us a lot about role. If you wanted to do direction comparisons of players games where they played similar roles it would look something like this:

Cam v Dale
Toby v Jack v Cam
Oregon v BHU v Toby
Tom v Royce v Jack v Jesse

 

[Sparkles]

For a few games it appears that the coach did ask Cam to play this role. Not the "running over blokes" bit, but I'd say rounds 1-3 McInnes was very much playing as a mobile bench prop. Cart it up and very little passing or involvement in attacking shape.

From round 4 once Jack had his legs under him he took that role back and Cam started playing differently.

Pretty phenomenal that can can flick between these roles (and probably just about any other... He definitely would have played centre at some point for NSW!) and still look like one of the best players in the field most weeks.