Official Dale Finucane

[Gards]

Ok is a relative term, we were still the Sharks and had problems, defense being a big one and inability to go with the top teams.

Dale in or out, doubt it makes a difference to those results. We have been belted with him in the team as well I'm pretty sure and he isn't going to prevent some of our disasters (like Dolphins game) alone.

If he were still playing like early 2022 I don't think many fans would be complaining about him. He really was better then watching the live games.

I mean there's probably some stats that could paint a picture that McInnes was the same throughout 2023 if you look at involvements ect but watching the games he clearly had a better mid to later part of the season.

 

[bort]

Looking at the two extremes in the team, if you play McInnes and BHU for 15 minutes each they are going to take just as many runs, tackle just as often, and constantly make their way back inside their half to run the ball. If you play them for 30, BHU's defensive workload will drop off by 50%, he'll miss 15% more tackles, and he won't take any runs inside his half. In my opinion both these players are valuable to the team, but the one who can play either role and can maintain his work rate is the better (and more rare) player.

I don’t think a 15 minute (bip) BHU role is being played by Cam probably ever.
He might be on for just 15 mins bip for whatever reason but he’s not putting on some of our teams bigger hits, returning kicks, trampling over fullbacks on the tryline etc

The extra 25kgs make a big difference in what BHU can do in a short stint vs what McInnes can do

 

[BurgoShark]

I don’t think a 15 minute (bip) BHU role is being played by Cam probably ever.
He might be on for just 15 mins bip for whatever reason but he’s not putting on some of our teams bigger hits, returning kicks, trampling over fullbacks on the tryline etc

The extra 25kgs make a big difference in what BHU can do in a short stint vs what McInnes can do

Oh for sure. You need those guys, but it's a lot easier to find them than it is to find the guy who can do it for longer... and while those moments are important, they aren't any more important than a 4m run off your own try-line when you are under the pump, or the tip on play get the big uit 1-on-1 with the fullback. The best players are the ones who make the highlight reel and take the hard carries.

The reason Fifita was so frikkin' good and deserved the big bucks is because he could do all of those things for 50+ minutes without slowing down. It's probably also (I think) a reason why Fitz loves Jesse so much. He's got a Cam/Dale motor in a 110kg+ chassis and can pass better than both of them.

btw... Cam's lowest minutes this year was round 1. He had 19 minutes (bip) across three separate stints. It was his highest involvement in any game. 30% higher than BHU's attacking average and 10% higher than his best attacking game.

 

[BurgoShark]

Ok is a relative term, we were still the Sharks and had problems, defense being a big one and inability to go with the top teams.

Dale in or out, doubt it makes a difference to those results. We have been belted with him in the team as well I'm pretty sure and he isn't going to prevent some of our disasters (like Dolphins game) alone.

FYI over the last two seasons the Sharks have lost just 2 games by more than 10 points with Finucane starting and finishing healthy.

Semi final v Rabbitohs 2022 and Rd 15 vs Storm 2023

Agree though that he couldn't have helped some of the other floggings all alone.

If he were still playing like early 2022 I don't think many fans would be complaining about him. He really was better then watching the live games.

I mean there's probably some stats that could paint a picture that McInnes was the same throughout 2023 if you look at involvements ect but watching the games he clearly had a better mid to later part of the season.

I think a lot of this is recency bias. Once Dale got injured Cam played more, so people remember him "doing more stuff".

It's similar to how people will bag a bloke who has a great game but drops the ball in the 77th minute. People have longer-lasting memories of the stuff that happens later in games, and later in a season.

I'm not just "collecting stats" btw. I've re-watched every game at least twice since the season finished (all sober). In my opinion from watching the games McInnes played just as well all season, except for against the Raiders in round 3 when he got hooked.

The purpose of the model is to demonstrate things that are not just my opinion.

 

[Sparkles]

FYI over the last two seasons the Sharks have lost just 2 games by more than 10 points with Finucane starting and finishing healthy.

So a 33% win rate?

 

[bort]

Oh for sure. You need those guys, but it's a lot easier to find them than it is to find the guy who can do it for longer... and while those moments are important, they aren't any more important than a 4m run off your own try-line when you are under the pump. The best players are the ones who make the highlight reel and take the hard carries.

The reason Fifita was so frikkin' good and deserved the big bucks is because he could do all of those things for 50+ minutes without slowing down. It's probably also (I think) a reason why Fitz loves Jesse so much. He's got a Cam/Dale motor in a 110kg+ chassis.

btw... Cam's lowest minutes this year was round 1. He had 19 minutes (bip) across three separate stints. It was his highest involvement in any game. 30% higher than BHU's attacking average and 10% higher than his best attacking game.

Cam's not doing it for longer, he's not doing it at all (imo)
They are completely different roles in my eyes, even Cam's round 1 you mention was his highest involvement, 30% higher than BHUs attacking average. BHU had the same number of runs but made 24% more meters. Yeah in more minutes and yeah Cam made more tackles too.
A 4m run off your own try line into the teeth of the defence may be valuable, but a 5m could be even better.

Both important, just different - I just don't find those two guys very comparable. I'd never ask those two guys to swap roles.
Dale for example I think can do both roles, I am happy to compare him to either McInnes, or props.

A guy who can run like BHU but at Cam's workrate is definitely rare, Fifita good example. They are also expensive. More expensive than Dale who many are complaining about (including myself to an extent). Dale for sure hasn't hit all expectation but doubt we'd have anyone better for same or less $.

 

[bort]

Poor Dale, being hammered on here and being used in NRL highlight video for a tackle which he was HIA'd for (and Whitehead sin binned)

Not Found | Fox Sports Videos

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[BurgoShark]

Cam's not doing it for longer, he's not doing it at all (imo)
They are completely different roles in my eyes, even Cam's round 1 you mention was his highest involvement, 30% higher than BHUs attacking average. BHU had the same number of runs but made 24% more meters. Yeah in more minutes and yeah Cam made more tackles too.

Without respect to possession and ball in play "metres" is a fantasy stat mate. Let me take kick returns against the Dragons next time we have 65% possession and I'll run 150 metres (or at least 20 on the first one then go off hurt).

A 4m run off your own try line into the teeth of the defence may be valuable, but a 5m could be even better.

... but still better than the run the other guy didn't take

Both important, just different - I just don't find those two guys very comparable. I'd never ask those two guys to swap roles.

For a few games it appears that the coach did ask Cam to play this role. Not the "running over blokes" bit, but I'd say rounds 1-3 McInnes was very much playing as a mobile bench prop. Cart it up and very little passing or involvement in attacking shape.

From round 4 once Jack had his legs under him he took that role back and Cam started playing differently.

I'd also say that there were games where I thought there were games prior to his injury where BHU was playing a lot more like a lock than McInnes was in attack. He never played like that after round 9 though.

I agree though that these normally aren't comparable players/roles.

Dale for example I think can do both roles, I am happy to compare him to either McInnes, or props.

A guy who can run like BHU but at Cam's workrate is definitely rare, Fifita good example. They are also expensive. More expensive than Dale who many are complaining about (including myself to an extent). Dale for sure hasn't hit all expectation but doubt we'd have anyone better for same or less $.

Agreed.

 

[bort]

Without respect to possession and ball in play "metres" is a fantasy stat mate. Let me take kick returns against the Dragons next time we have 65% possession and I'll run 150 metres (or at least 20 on the first one then go off hurt).

Every stat is a fantasy stat without context. Except BIP, it’s even less. It helps provide some context to other stats, sure. But nobody* besides you is ever gunna say "damn did you see Nicho Hynes win us that World Cup final? Can't believe he pulled off so many minutes ball in play, incredible."
Every stat needs context. (*broadly speaking they may refer to speed of game or lack of stoppages though)

The more context the better, you've been bringing in quite a bit of different numbers to combine with BIP - it's good.
You also have enough rewatches to add some good less tangible context too, which I appreciate.

But if BHU crashes in a stack of kick return meters vs the dragons then great, that sounds like it is helping us win.
Cam did some hard yards too? Cool he’s good at those and I expect contributing to us winning too.

Largely speaking we've gone off topic which was just that Cam and BHU aren't really great to compare in my opinion - especially for a short stint.
One can be viewed as a better player, forward or even middle than the other but I will be comparing that more to output vs my perceived role for them, not directly vs the other. Maybe a few games one passed the ball a bit more, the other took some straight hit ups... I'll question my broader perception more if Cam is ever named in 8 and BHU in 13/14 in an otherwise fully fit middle. For now when I look at your mapping efforts I won't glance directly from Cam to see where BHU's dots are because for how I value their impact I don't need to compare them to each other. Cam one vs Dale though, definitely interesting.

... but still better than the run the other guy didn't take

Everything is hypothetically better (and worse) than the guy who didn't take it. BHUs longer runs were presumably better than the same run Cam didn't take. Schrodinger's hit up.

 

[Sharkfox]

Trade him if he's not firing next season. Let go of two middles next year

 

[HaroldBishop]

Trade him if he's not firing next season. Let go of two middles next year

He's on sfa for his last season.

 

[Sparkles]

Poor Dale, being hammered on here and being used in NRL highlight video for a tackle which he was HIA'd for (and Whitehead sin binned)

Not Found | Fox Sports Videos

www.foxsports.com.au

He was cut by the NRL, now I hope he gets a cut from the NRL.

And if our guys are in the highlight reel, the Sharks should be over there too! Add clips of Chad on Ponga, Wade on Ponga and Lewis... on Ponga... (gaaang baaang!) and we're the most bloodthirsty club around!

 

[BurgoShark]

Largely speaking we've gone off topic which was just that Cam and BHU aren't really great to compare in my opinion - especially for a short stint.
One can be viewed as a better player, forward or even middle than the other but I will be comparing that more to output vs my perceived role for them, not directly vs the other. Maybe a few games one passed the ball a bit more, the other took some straight hit ups... I'll question my broader perception more if Cam is ever named in 8 and BHU in 13/14 in an otherwise fully fit middle. For now when I look at your mapping efforts I won't glance directly from Cam to see where BHU's dots are because for how I value their impact I don't need to compare them to each other. Cam one vs Dale though, definitely interesting.

Yeah agree. I was moreso using those two guys as a way to explain the actual chart to someone.

Measuring involvement tells us a lot about role. If you wanted to do direction comparisons of players games where they played similar roles it would look something like this:

Cam v Dale
Toby v Jack v Cam
Oregon v BHU v Toby
Tom v Royce v Jack v Jesse

 

[Sparkles]

For a few games it appears that the coach did ask Cam to play this role. Not the "running over blokes" bit, but I'd say rounds 1-3 McInnes was very much playing as a mobile bench prop. Cart it up and very little passing or involvement in attacking shape.

From round 4 once Jack had his legs under him he took that role back and Cam started playing differently.

Pretty phenomenal that can can flick between these roles (and probably just about any other... He definitely would have played centre at some point for NSW!) and still look like one of the best players in the field most weeks.

 

[BurgoShark]

Here's one for you bort.

Here is BHU's tackle% sorted by games played with the other two starters in the team (both, one or neither).

This then raises the question… does he miss more because those two aren’t out there with him or because he plays more minutes when they are not available (or both)?

Just one more way of saying “geez I wish we had our starting 3 middles in the team with our halfback for more than 2 games this season”.

 

[bort]

Here's one for you bort.

Here is BHU's tackle% sorted by games played with the other two starters in the team (both, one or neither).

This then raises the question… does he miss more because those two aren’t out there with him or because he plays more minutes when they are not available (or both)?

Just one more way of saying “geez I wish we had our starting 3 middles in the team with our halfback for more than 2 games this season”.

View attachment 29866

Reasonably telling isn’t it.
Fingers crossed we can string together 20+ with BHU Toby Dale and Cam all healthy.

Which games were those dots with all three?

 

[BurgoShark]

I

Reasonably telling isn’t it.
Fingers crossed we can string together 20+ with BHU Toby Dale and Cam all healthy.

Which games were those dots with all three?

Rounds 1-5. Didn’t play a game with all three in the lineup after that

Dale got suspended round 5. While he was out both the other two got hurt.

Dale back round 10.
BHU back round 12.

Round 18 BHU got hurt on the opening kick-off and Dale got suspended.

Toby returned round 19.

Dale returned round 21 and got hurt.

BHU returned round 22.

When you factor in that Nicho didn't play rounds 1-3 it's not a pretty picture as far as team continuity is concerned.

2 games out of 25 with your starting 8, 10, 13 and 7 available. I wonder how that compares to the rest of the league. Pretty sure for the Panthers is was 20+.

 

[bort]

I

Rounds 1-5.

Didn’t play a game with all three in the lineup after that

Dale got suspended round 5. While he was out both the other two got hurt.

Dale back round 10.
BHU back round 12

Round 18 Dale suspended and BHU got hurt.
Toby returned round 19.

Dale returned round 21 and got hurt.

BHU returned round 22.

Makes sense

Couple real ‘what could have been’ matches in that stretch.

Ilias career best game & Ronnie bombed tries
Warriors big comeback

 

[BurgoShark]

Makes sense

Couple real ‘what could have been’ matches in that stretch.

Ilias career best game & Ronnie bombed tries
Warriors big comeback

Yeah.

Had a trickle down effect too.

Imo Kaufusi also played his best footy up to the point when BHU went down against the Cowboys. Was fine when one of the other starters was out, but struggled big time when they were both gone.

 

[Thresher]

Pumped