Predicted Round 1 team

[Sir Chadley]

I like the look of him more. Not sure if there's a stat for that

I think BHU has improved since last year. It happens sometimes.
He feels more like our new Fifita, and we need one. He's got almost all the same natural attributes and a chunk of the attitude. Sticks tackles, can ball play and has a sense for a big play.

Toby may have improved too. Haven't seen him yet to know, but I've always though BHU has the potential to be great. And that's ultimately what we use to pick our side, right?

I may be howled down but I think Hunt is the one closest to being a new Fifita. Haven't seen him in the clear to see how fast he can run but we know he can break the line and be a real handful. Obviously I would not be putting him in the class of Fifita early on his career but who knows?

 

[bort]

I like the look of him more. Not sure if there's a stat for that

I think BHU has improved since last year. It happens sometimes.
He feels more like our new Fifita, and we need one. He's got almost all the same natural attributes and a chunk of the attitude. Sticks tackles, can ball play and has a sense for a big play.

Toby may have improved too. Haven't seen him yet to know, but I've always though BHU has the potential to be great. And that's ultimately what we use to pick our side, right?

Both have potential to be very competent NRL starters. BHU did look very promising for season ahead in trials.

I don't mind Fitz using whichever off the bench he thinks benefits the team more - hopefully once McInnes is back we don't need to start both too often.

I may be howled down but I think Hunt is the one closest to being a new Fifita. Haven't seen him in the clear to see how fast he can run but we know he can break the line and be a real handful. Obviously I would not be putting him in the class of Fifita early on his career but who knows?

Both big with explosive power and upper body strength but lack the dynamic angle changes and footwork Fifita was able to use to turn the infamous Fifita crab into a dynamite play. Both can crash through some goal line D for a try.

They may do stuff that reminds us of Fifita but think both will remain more similar to traditional prop than a Fifita clone.

 

[Sparkles]

I may be howled down but I think Hunt is the one closest to being a new Fifita. Haven't seen him in the clear to see how fast he can run but we know he can break the line and be a real handful. Obviously I would not be putting him in the class of Fifita early on his career but who knows?

Not by me mate, we're on the same page

He's struggled to take the next step, but Fitz fixes all so I'm expecting him to play Origin within two years.
He's 27 now, so should be hitting his stride by about... Friday.

 

[Sir Chadley]

Not by me mate, we're on the same page

He's struggled to take the next step, but Fitz fixes all so I'm expecting him to play Origin within two years.
He's 27 now, so should be hitting his stride by about... Friday.

Not quite, 27 in August.

Seriously though I thought he was only early 20s.

Still one of my favourite players though, love the way he rips in.

 

[Sparkles]

Not quite, 27 in August.

Seriously though I thought he was only early 20s.

Still one of my favourite players though, love the way he rips in.

So maybe not hitting his peak on Friday then
That actually makes me feel even better about him. I feel like he's maturing and playing more like a seasoned prop. Plenty of time for him

 

[bort]

I agree. Proves nothing. It's all just more info to chew on.

Rudolf didn't come off the bench once in 2021 btw - so I've included his 2020 numbers.

The stats show that:
- Both players are similarly effective from the bench, and both are better from the bench.
- Rudolf was the better starter in 2021

View attachment 26978

Shows reasonably strongly BHU is best started off the bench vs Toby can do either.

Toby kind of has one speed setting whereas I could see a big strong lump like BHU thinking 'right they are tired now I will be able to get over them' and playing better as a result.

 

[Deleted member 2543]

That Toby didn't come off the bench once last year kind of has the starting spot leaning his way....
Sorry if you've explained the calculation before, but does it reflect minutes played? Did Toby play more than BHU when they were starters? I'm thinking it's pure metres (though @Gards might have it right with tries, last year was a blur).

You've prefixed with it's just more info to chew on, so I get it's not an exact science. You're getting closer to it being one though!

All good. It shows metres per 80 minutes played, adjusted for possession rate.

As a baseline... if the team had 50% of possession an a player ran 100 metres in 40 minutes of play, his score would be 200. "Get an even share of possession, play half a game, run 100m" seems like a pretty good baseline comparison for NRL middles.

If he was able to have that same output with less possession and/or in less minutes, his score is better. If it took him longer and/or his team had the ball the whole time, it will make his score lower.

The idea here is to show that just looking at the "metres" stats or "metres per game" stats doesn't mean much without taking in to consideration how much he played and how much his team had the ball. The baseline performance is the orange column below, and I have thrown in a few of Rudolf's individual games to compare.

Like you said, it is not exact - and there are still gaps - but I think this gives you more useful information than "metres".

 

[Sparkles]

All good. It shows metres per 80 minutes played, adjusted for possession rate.

As a baseline... if the team had 50% of possession an a player ran 100 metres in 40 minutes of play, his score would be 200. "Get an even share of possession, play half a game, run 100m" seems like a pretty good baseline comparison for NRL middles.

If he was able to have that same output with less possession and/or in less minutes, his score is better. If it took him longer and/or his team had the ball the whole time, it will make his score lower.

The idea here is to show that just looking at the "metres" stats or "metres per game" stats doesn't mean much without taking in to consideration how much he played and how much his team had the ball. The baseline performance is the orange column below, and I have thrown in a few of Rudolf's individual games to compare.

Like you said, it is not exact - and there are still gaps - but I think this gives you more useful information than "metres".


View attachment 26982

Ingenious. Cheers Burgo. It's a pretty big gap between them... Put it down to different styles of player?

 

[Deleted member 2543]

Ingenious. Cheers Burgo. It's a pretty big gap between them... Put it down to different styles of player?

Personally think BHU may have had a niggle or been a little under-done at the start of the year. Just a guess though.

What the graph doesn't show is that nearly all of the starting games were round 1-8, and all of the bench games were after he came back from injury in round 15. He was much better in general when he came back regardless of whether he started (this is my opinion, and also what the stats show).

Back on Rudolf, if we want to look at a full season rather than just an average - I can do that too. Orange line is the baseline score of 200.

 

[Lobotomy-Shark]

I'm a stat man... Bee bup bup buddo bo.

 

[MMsharks]

I'm a stat man... Bee bup bup buddo bo.

nice work! i see what you did there

 

[sharks2010]

Interesting read this thread, this is far from having a dig at anyone's side they picked but just ties into the wade debate on whether he should return to first grade immediately or via the jets

It's also intriguing how most people (And rightly so) had left out players who have shown vast improvement, just goes to show the affect fitz has had on the side

 

[Six Again]

Interesting read this thread, this is far from having a dig at anyone's side they picked but just ties into the wade debate on whether he should return to first grade immediately or via the jets

It's also intriguing how most people (And rightly so) had left out players who have shown vast improvement, just goes to show the affect fitz has had on the side

and add to the Fitz factor a genuine competition for a number of positions .