Not every injury or recovery is the same but I don't think we should be expecting to wait anywhere near round 10 to have him able to
play well for us.
I know you said 'perform to expectation' but we can manage that pretty easily by bringing him through as a the 4th forward. He should be able to give us 20 good minutes well before round 7
I assume, or at least by around then be playing big minutes in Cup, if we don't bring him straight up (that would be likely a credit to other peoples form as much as anything to do with him)
NRL player usual recovery time usually about 16 weeks, has been as little as 12
(following dot points are per NRL Physio)
- Cleary surgery start of November aiming for round 1 and a good chance of being there, was back doing limited training including passing in December.
- Edwards reported mid November (approx 2 weeks later) and considered touch and go for round 1
- Talagi reported same time as Edwards, hoping for round 1 reported as 15 weeks after his surgery but considered 'in doubt'
- Rudolf surgery reported 4 days later than above two (so round 1 probably approx 14 weeks post surgery)
He shouldn't take 6 months recovery to be a good contributor when his minutes can be controlled better than anyone above.
Even round 7 is a 22 weeks (5.5 month) post surgery. Ideally he's been clear for play 6 weeks (give or take) by that stage.
Even if not up for a 60+ minute starting gig in the first couple of months back (which he could be) I don't think there is any particular reason he shouldn't be able to give us good football.
Murray had latarjet early October 2021 and played 58 minutes round 1 2022, this is about a 5 monther. 12 runs and a 42-1-3 tackle count.
Cleary had it in 2021 also after repeated shoulder issues through the year, he did however miss first 3 rounds but on return in a grand final rematch played 80, ran 10 times although it was one of the worst defensive performances (statistically) you could find for him, 13-6-3
Quite a long post to basically agree with you he may not be at his absolute peak until more like round 7, but that I think he can be a good contributor and play the role we need from him before then, but I did go down the rabbit hole of what other recoveries have looked like haha