2023 NRL Round 20 New Zealand Warriors v Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 2:00pm Sunday 16 July @ Go Media Stadium, Auckland NZ

[Patrick]

Great read. People turned on by numbers will love this.

In short -
1. Our forwards get dominated by top eight sides and have done since 2020.

2. Our forwards need to make more metres and our system of wingers and talakai/ramien taking early hit ups is not giving us enough distance.

3. Our forwards need to lessen the metres gained by top eight sides.

4. Warriors are one of the best performing teams against top eight sides. We are the worst (overall). This weekends game is crucial if we any chance this year.

I'm glad you understood it! Cheers for the summary.

 

[Capital_Shark]

Haven't seen a Warriors game in months. NFI what to expect

 

[bort]

Why are the Sharks toothless against top eight sides? - The Rugby League Eye Test

The last few seasons has produced a lot of talk about how the Sharks are flat track bullies, or have had a soft draw, or can’t win against quality competition when it matters. The results tend to agree with this, and the only way for the club to shed this sort of moniker is to deliver finals...

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com

The ETPCR numbers are interesting

(Keep in mind I've said I'd be happy to see Trindall play over Moylan)

The gap for Moyza is massive, dominates the weaker sides, offers little against top sides (but we know that). Stylistically we know players like him, Luai, Walker etc are there for their attack so our team failing to make meters against top sides does escalate this (oh no, bort is defending Moylan with circumstances).

If you look at Trindall though he is also fairly weak against top 8 sides, but offers very little vs bottom 8/9 sides. CBF looking at how many games he has played vs each, also not sure how bench factors into it.
But from outside looking purely at these numbers you'd think if Trindall could make more of an impact against weaker sides, close that gap a bit, he'd have to be much more in consideration. Obviously if he can improve vs top 8 that's good too, but like for Moylan that is harder while we can't match meters with opps.

Unless Trindall is fixing the meters made issues, which he probably isn't, I can see why we'd chase an attack oriented coach would chase upside of Moylan over more 'solid' Trindall.
He is one of our worst performers against bottom 8s while still being towards the bottom vs top 8s.
Also a fair take Moylan is our worst against top 8 sides by a margin and would do us a lot of favours if he could close that gap.

Nikora and Wilton numbers interesting. I wonder what they'd be like for just this season.

 

[Proud Shark]

Yep I inferred this via stats referencing metres. They are talking middle metres being the predominant area of metres gained and lost. That’s our forwards.

Talking defensively yeah? I found this part the most interesting.

"When they play a strong side, over 80% of the that difference per run comes from pre contact metres, which implies could be a line speed issue in those contests with Top 8 sides."

Watching enough of our games, I take this as an indictment of our whole defensive system, although the metres are more conceded through the middle. It's probably one of the core reasons our goal line defence has been so bad too. We just don't get up and shut plays down well enough.

With the ball in hand, I agree with your previous comment, it's a pretty clear trend that our plan to use the backs so heavily isn't as effective as we want it to be. Our kick returns are great, which seems to get us on the front foot for play 1, but the second and third hit ups are often more of the same, and are we seem to be struggling there. So no surprise then our forwards are on the back foot for their hit ups.

Fantastic statistical breakdown though, he puts out such great content.

 

[bort]

Talking defensively yeah? I found this part the most interesting.

"When they play a strong side, over 80% of the that difference per run comes from pre contact metres, which implies could be a line speed issue in those contests with Top 8 sides."

Watching enough of our games, I take this as an indictment of our whole defensive system, although the metres are more conceded through the middle. It's probably one of the core reasons our goal line defence has been so bad too. We just don't get up and shut plays down well enough.

With the ball in hand, I agree with your previous comment, it's a pretty clear trend that our plan to use the backs so heavily isn't as effective as we want it to be. Our kick returns are great, which seems to get us on the front foot for play 1, but the second and third hit ups are often more of the same, and are we seem to be struggling there. So no surprise then our forwards are on the back foot for their hit ups.

Fantastic statistical breakdown though, he puts out such great content.

Ironically using the backs for hitups keeps the forwards fresher for their much greater defensive workload... which they are failing at.
So it's falling down on both fronts.

Definitely plenty of games where we just appear to be content to stand onside and let play come to us rather than have any kind of linespeed. Really bizarre and data (and eye test) would suggest it aint working.

For all our supposed leaders in the pack (Dale, Cam & Wade) you'd think one of them could drag the defensive line up with them to make some contact. In fact it is so poor you think it must be a conscious tactical choice, surely.
Brailey makes plenty of tackles but he is so small usually it is all he can do to hold on (and he does do pretty well), he's not leading our defence.

On the try line our defence is 13 blokes who have never met before still, somehow.

 

[ben]

In fairness, our 1, 2, 3 props have been out for a while this year.

Doesn’t explain the similarities over four years though.

 

[Deleted member 2543]

Yep I inferred this via stats referencing metres. They are talking middle metres being the predominant area of metres gained and lost. That’s our forwards.

No. He isn't. You are attributing something to the numbers that are not there.

The post says that they averaged 30cm less in post-contact metres per-run against top 8 sides in 2020, 2021 and 2023, but not in 2022. It doesn't say why...

Maybe the Sharks halves are crap defenders and concede more metres. Maybe they get pinned in their end more often by teams who have good kicking games. Maybe the Sharks compress their line more than other teams which makes them more susceptible to an early shift. Maybe the Sharks kicking game or kick chase is a little off. Maybe something else.

Saying that the forwards are the problem is just guesswork.

 

[Deleted member 2543]

The ETPCR numbers are interesting

(Keep in mind I've said I'd be happy to see Trindall play over Moylan)

The gap for Moyza is massive, dominates the weaker sides, offers little against top sides (but we know that). Stylistically we know players like him, Luai, Walker etc are there for their attack so our team failing to make meters against top sides does escalate this (oh no, bort is defending Moylan with circumstances).

If you look at Trindall though he is also fairly weak against top 8 sides, but offers very little vs bottom 8/9 sides. CBF looking at how many games he has played vs each, also not sure how bench factors into it.
But from outside looking purely at these numbers you'd think if Trindall could make more of an impact against weaker sides, close that gap a bit, he'd have to be much more in consideration. Obviously if he can improve vs top 8 that's good too, but like for Moylan that is harder while we can't match meters with opps.

Unless Trindall is fixing the meters made issues, which he probably isn't, I can see why we'd chase an attack oriented coach would chase upside of Moylan over more 'solid' Trindall.
He is one of our worst performers against bottom 8s while still being towards the bottom vs top 8s.
Also a fair take Moylan is our worst against top 8 sides by a margin and would do us a lot of favours if he could close that gap.

Nikora and Wilton numbers interesting. I wonder what they'd be like for just this season.

I suspect those numbers would be all minutes for Trindall (middle, cameos, etc.) so probably not very indicative of his actual output.

 

[bort]

I suspect those numbers would be all minutes for Trindall (middle, cameos, etc.) so probably not very indicative of his actual output.

Let me know once you've adjusted so I can have a proper look
kidding, of course

 

[Proud Shark]

Ironically using the backs for hitups keeps the forwards fresher for their much greater defensive workload... which they are failing at.
So it's falling down on both fronts.

Definitely plenty of games where we just appear to be content to stand onside and let play come to us rather than have any kind of linespeed. Really bizarre and data (and eye test) would suggest it aint working.

For all our supposed leaders in the pack (Dale, Cam & Wade) you'd think one of them could drag the defensive line up with them to make some contact. In fact it is so poor you think it must be a conscious tactical choice, surely.
Brailey makes plenty of tackles but he is so small usually it is all he can do to hold on (and he does do pretty well), he's not leading our defence.

On the try line our defence is 13 blokes who have never met before still, somehow.

It's hard to say without context. It's clearly identified around that 2-3 play, but is that a forwards first hit up? Or is the back on the 1-2 play making metres but getting a slow play the ball causing the rest of the plays to be on the back foot.

I guess the same can be said for the initial 80% stat though. It sounds like a lot, but now that I think about it, you'd expect 80% or so of the metres made to be pre contact, right? I'd be interested to know how that compares to other teams. Like yeah, we rank poorly, but are we 80% and 1st is 40% or 75%? Makes a big difference.

 

[ben]

No. He isn't. You are attributing something to the numbers that are not there.

The post says that they averaged 30cm less in post-contact metres per-run against top 8 sides in 2020, 2021 and 2023, but not in 2022. It doesn't say why...

Maybe the Sharks halves are crap defenders and concede more metres. Maybe they get pinned in their end more often by teams who have good kicking games. Maybe the Sharks compress their line more than other teams which makes them more susceptible to an early shift. Maybe the Sharks kicking game or kick chase is a little off. Maybe something else.

Saying that the forwards are the problem is just guesswork.

True. I was inferring. When they talk about metre numbers, I go straight to forwards. It’s my view that our forwards (middle) are getting dominated. It’s cloudier when it’s averages as there is a lot of influences examples by what you said.

 

[Proud Shark]

No. He isn't. You are attributing something to the numbers that are not there.

The post says that they averaged 30cm less in post-contact metres per-run against top 8 sides in 2020, 2021 and 2023, but not in 2022. It doesn't say why...

Maybe the Sharks halves are crap defenders and concede more metres. Maybe they get pinned in their end more often by teams who have good kicking games. Maybe the Sharks compress their line more than other teams which makes them more susceptible to an early shift. Maybe the Sharks kicking game or kick chase is a little off. Maybe something else.

Saying that the forwards are the problem is just guesswork.

This may be true, but I'd argue that its not unreasonable guesswork. Looking at the stats alone, all those questions you raise are completely fair and valid.

But watching the games, we're not seeing other teams consistently out shift us early, nor are we seeing Moylan and Nicho constantly concede metres. So whilst not facts, the eye test can add some strength to the point.

 

[Deleted member 2543]

This may be true, but I'd argue that its not unreasonable guesswork. Looking at the stats alone, all those questions you raise are completely fair and valid.

But watching the games, we're not seeing other teams consistently out shift us early, nor are we seeing Moylan and Nicho constantly concede metres. So whilst not facts, the eye test can add some strength to the point.

It is unreasonable though. It's a mis-representation of what was in the article/post. He's welcome to add his own opinion, but that's not what the article said.

He didn't say "the post says we make a little less per run against good teams. I reckon it's because our forwards are pillows". He said "the post says our forwards are pillows". That is not true.

He also said that this is the case since 2020, which is also not true. It was the case for 2020, 2021 and for 4 games in 2023, but not for 2022 (the largest body of Fitz's work).

As for watching the games, for 2023 they said it's a 4 game sample size. Do you not think that the Broncos 90m try off an early shift or the Storm concentrating their attack at the Sharks halves could maybe sway the average numbers a little?

 

[Sharkfox]

Why are the Sharks toothless against top eight sides? - The Rugby League Eye Test

The last few seasons has produced a lot of talk about how the Sharks are flat track bullies, or have had a soft draw, or can’t win against quality competition when it matters. The results tend to agree with this, and the only way for the club to shed this sort of moniker is to deliver finals...

www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com

Get the DEFENSE right, lost that dna of grit and grind

 

[Wiz]

Get the DEFENSE right, lost that dna of grit and grind

All this talk about defence when Our attack against top teams is just as bad

When we don’t score it creates more pressure to turn around and defend - defence hasn’t been our strong since Flanagan left

It looks like it’s always become very easy to shut Hynes down and we’ve never looked like having a plan b when that happens

Looking forward to see what’s changed this next month

 

[Deleted member 3365]

All this talk about defence when Our attack against top teams is just as bad

When we don’t score it creates more pressure to turn around and defend - defence hasn’t been our strong since Flanagan left

It looks like it’s always become very easy to shut Hynes down and we’ve never looked like having a plan b when that happens

Looking forward to see what’s changed this next month

I'm ready to get hurt again.

 

[Shortfin Mako]

All this talk about defence when Our attack against top teams is just as bad

When we don’t score it creates more pressure to turn around and defend - defence hasn’t been our strong since Flanagan left

It looks like it’s always become very easy to shut Hynes down and we’ve never looked like having a plan b when that happens

Looking forward to see what’s changed this next month

So far this year, when we played the top teams we leaked points very easily but we were not able to score as easy as we normally do. Maybe the Warriors game is an exception to that but without looking up the scores, I remember the top teams generally keeping us to 10 points or less.

They rush and lock our halves and this seems to panic us. After that everything falls apart and we cannot get back in the game.

 

[Western Sharkie]

We owe these guys a loss at home, so Fitz needs to have our boys fired up and on point for this game.

They pulled our pants down at home, so we need to return the favour.

 

[Deleted member 3365]

So far this year, when we played the top teams we leaked points very easily but we were not able to score as easy as we normally do. Maybe the Warriors game is an exception to that but without looking up the scores, I remember the top teams generally keeping us to 10 points or less.

They rush and lock our halves and this seems to panic us. After that everything falls apart and we cannot get back in the game.

Well hopefully Moylan and Brailey can take some of the pressure off Hynes. Also, helps if our forwards dominate too.

 

[HaroldBishop]

So far this year, when we played the top teams we leaked points very easily but we were not able to score as easy as we normally do.

Do you think the fact the top teams have better defence than the lower teams might have something to do with it mate?