Official Toby Rudolf

[BurgoShark]

Adding a bit more to the "Toby is playing too long" discussion...

Black is an error.
Grey is a penalty or six-again.

 

[bort]

So from about 65 onwards don't let Toby touch the football
Or at least, don't let Toe-by touch it. Hopefully he gets that full recovered for this season with the help of his ballet.

 

[Proud Shark]

He doesn't really seem to make errors/give penalties in his first 10 minutes, so let's just get him on for 4-5 10-minute stints

 

[bort]

He doesn't really seem to make errors/give penalties in his first 10 minutes, so let's just get him on for 4-5 10-minute stints

Call him over to the sideline every 10 mins but then send him back out before he crosses it so he feels like he's running on for a stint

 

[BurgoShark]

... and here is the missed tackle data again for Rounds 1-24.

Can't update this all of these easily because it is collated by manually watching the games.

Short explanation here is that after his return from injury in round 19, Toby was missing more tackles in all situations (about 2 more tackles per 80 minutes played) - and not just late in his stints or when he played longer.

I'd say this is more likely a reflection of team situations than anything Toby was doing specifically (i.e. the team had less ball so Toby had to make more tackles).

 

[bort]

... and here is the missed tackle data again for Rounds 1-24.

Can't update this all of these easily because it is collated by manually watching the games.

Short explanation here is that after his return from injury in round 19, Toby was missing more tackles in all situations (about 2 more tackles per 80 minutes played) - and not just late in his stints or when he played longer.

I'd say this is more likely a reflection of team situations than anything Toby was doing specifically (i.e. the team had less ball so Toby had to make more tackles).

View attachment 30218

Is the ie based on data or guesstimate?

Maybe he just missed more tackles because his toe was ****ed.

 

[BurgoShark]

So from about 65 onwards don't let Toby touch the football
Or at least, don't let Toe-by touch it. Hopefully he gets that full recovered for this season with the help of his ballet.

... or let him make tackles (so as to avoid 6-agains)

There were those couple of games there (Souths and Cowboys) where he had some negative plays late in his first stint - and you'd definitely like him to tidy up the second stint. I'd argue that it's not an issue of fatigue though. If he can go 25 to start the game he can surely handle another 10-15 after a 40 minute breather.

Also - nobody is arguing that he is being left out too long on his second stint. They want him pulled before 20. If Fitz had done that with Toby all season it would have saved the team 1 error and 2 six-agains. Worth considering but hardly an "obvious trend that the bonehead coach can't see".

Is the ie based on data or guesstimate?

Maybe he just missed more tackles because his toe was ****ed.

Based on data. I just didn't use possession in those numbers because back when I did it the first time it was just based off nrl.com stats before I had collated everything for the season. Could adjust the graph for possession but it would take a while.

For the period from rounds 20-26.
- Sharks won possession just once in the 7 games when Toby was on (Souths 51%)
- 4 of the 7 games the Sharks were under 44%
- One game (Panthers) they had 36%

 

[bort]

... or let him make tackles (so as to avoid 6-agains)

There were those couple of games there (Souths and Cowboys) where he had some negative plays late in his first stint - and you'd definitely like him to tidy up the second one. I'd argue that it's not an issue of fatigue though. If he can go 25 to start the game he can surely handle another 10-15 after a 40 minute breather.

Also - nobody is arguing that he is being left out too long on his second stint. They want him pulled before 20. If Fitz had done that with Toby all season it would have saved the team 1 error and 2 six-agains. Worth considering but hardly an "obvious trend that the bonehead coach can't see".


Based on data. I just didn't use possession in those numbers because back when I did it the first time it was just based off nrl.com stats before I had collated everything for the season. Could adjust the graph for possession but it would take a while.

For the period from rounds 20-26.
- Sharks won possession just once in the 7 games when Toby was on (Souths 51%)
- 4 of the 7 games the Sharks were under 44%
- One game (Panthers) they had 36%

I'm not saying he didn't have the tank for the workload, I certainly don't think a 10-15 minutes second stint is beyond him.
I just thought (likely due to the injury) the quality of work was down.
And wondering how much the combination of normal fatigue load and injury struggle impacted him.

His all run meters per game average during that 20-26 period was down 20% vs his season average (down 33% vs his season average if you remove these rounds).
Given we didn't have 20-33% below average possession it would appear even considering lower possession he was also not very effective in offence in this patch of games - which could be purely circumstantial.

Interestingly despite a big drop in meters made (33%) his PCMs were actually up by a similar number. Harder to handle with more weight due to toe layoff (decreased training cardio, increased gym work)?
(PCMs in this period are propped up a little by especially high average PCMs vs Warriors)

A lot of factors swirling around of course - likely started more sets deep in our territory if we weren't getting much football, which would see the backs running early in set more often. But 4 of those 7 games he made (virtually) half his season average meters, and vs Panthers closer to only a third.

But I thought it looked like his toe hampered his push-off, which also could have contributed to defence getting up on him quicker (less meters made) and worse timing in defensive line (more missed tackles).
If that is something he is struggling with more possession would have helped us in general, but then better runs and tackling by him would have helped get more possession potentially too...

He's also credited with two penalties vs Warriors but you've given him one in your graph.
He has two penalties and two errors against the rabbitohs but your graph has one less error.
You've obviously opted to blame someone else for these, without me reviewing footage, is there any prospect these or his other many errors and penalties in this period of games would have been reduced if he was not struggling with a foot injury? I'd probably assume so given stats for earlier in season.

Hopefully he can get it back to 100% before 24 season starts and we won't have to worry about it.
2020 130m per game, 29 tackles
2021 120m per game, 33 tackles
2022 113m per game, 32 tackles
2023 108m per game, 30 tackles
Needs to correct this slide...

 

[bort]

Feeling the forum pressure

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=945979740218929

 

[BurgoShark]

I'm not saying he didn't have the tank for the workload, I certainly don't think a 10-15 minutes second stint is beyond him.
I just thought (likely due to the injury) the quality of work was down.
And wondering how much the combination of normal fatigue load and injury struggle impacted him.

I am only addressing the contention that he has more negative plays when they leave him on for a longer first stint or more total minutes.

I definitely think the injury effected him overall.

His all run meters per game average during that 20-26 period was down 20% vs his season average (down 33% vs his season average if you remove these rounds).
Given we didn't have 20-33% below average possession it would appear even considering lower possession he was also not very effective in offence in this patch of games - which could be purely circumstantial.

Toby did.

What matters is how much time he had to actually do stuff. Not the possession stats for the entire game (much of which he didn't participate in).

Rounds 20-26 = 12.3 minutes on attack (average)
All rounds except 20-26 = 16.1 minutes on attack (average)
(That's a 23.5% reduction in time on attack, while also playing long stints so having to defend 23.5% more).

Possession does not effect run metres on a 1:1 scale. For a middle who could play half a game and had 10 runs for 100m, a possession split of 51/49 split would give him one less set of six to work with - which could mean a 10% reduction in metres. If we take this to an extreme and look at Toby against the Panthers, 36% possession means he had 6 runs for ~50m in 8 just minutes of possession. That's a 50% reduction in possession and a 50% reduction in output. Just what we'd expect to see.

If we take possession and game time in to account, the biggest difference for Toby was less kick returns and less runs inside the attacking end. i.e. the Sharks scored less tries for Toby to return kicks, and had less good-ball sets for him to take run (short dropouts trending up through the season may also impact this)

E.g. again comparing round 20-26 against all other games (kick returns, runs inside attacking 25)
- Rounds 20-26 = 6 kick returns, 11 runs inside attacking 25 (7 games)
- All other games = 14 kick returns, 35 runs inside attacking 25 (8 games)

Interestingly despite a big drop in meters made (33%) his PCMs were actually up by a similar number. Harder to handle with more weight due to toe layoff (decreased training cardio, increased gym work)?
(PCMs in this period are propped up a little by especially high average PCMs vs Warriors)

A lot of factors swirling around of course - likely started more sets deep in our territory if we weren't getting much football, which would see the backs running early in set more often. But 4 of those 7 games he made (virtually) half his season average meters, and vs Panthers closer to only a third.

But I thought it looked like his toe hampered his push-off, which also could have contributed to defence getting up on him quicker (less meters made) and worse timing in defensive line (more missed tackles).
If that is something he is struggling with more possession would have helped us in general, but then better runs and tackling by him would have helped get more possession potentially too...

This may be the case - but it's not not measurable. All I can say is that his involvement/output was the same when possession and minutes are taken in to account.

He's also credited with two penalties vs Warriors but you've given him one in your graph.
He has two penalties and two errors against the rabbitohs but your graph has one less error.
You've obviously opted to blame someone else for these, without me reviewing footage, is there any prospect these or his other many errors and penalties in this period of games would have been reduced if he was not struggling with a foot injury? I'd probably assume so given stats for earlier in season.

Warriors one was the same instance. He gave up a penalty and was marched 10m for backchat. Counts as 2 penalties on the stats sheet but for my purposes it is just the one f-up.

Souths one you are right. There was a one-on-one strip on him with about 1m to go. Data was in the graph but the coloured bit was hanging off the hidden section to the right. Thanks.

Hopefully he can get it back to 100% before 24 season starts and we won't have to worry about it.
2020 130m per game, 29 tackles
2021 120m per game, 33 tackles
2022 113m per game, 32 tackles
2023 108m per game, 30 tackles
Needs to correct this slide...

If they fix the important stuff like winning possession and filed position I'm sure the individual players' metres stats will follow.

 

[BurgoShark]

Probably should also have thrown in there that rounds 20-26 there were quite a few games with in-game injuries or with a 3-forward bench.

 

[bort]

If they fix the important stuff like winning possession and filed position I'm sure the individual players' metres stats will follow.

But at the same time if the individual players get their stats up with better play the possession and field position will fix itself. You earn that possession, or you give it away. Do we beat weaker teams because we have good possession, or do we have good possession because we are outplaying them?
Did he purely play worse in these games because possession was against him? Or did he contribute to poor possession with worse (than average) play?
There is definitely a cluster of errors and penalties on your earlier graph, and very few of them are in his first 20 minutes of play.

That earlier graph with missed tackles also marked would be interesting.

View attachment 30219

So in his 10 games post toe injury he had only 4 which were above his season average? 4 maybe 5 of his other games were above season average.
Interesting that his best game was propped up by an unusually high inside 20 work load vs Rabbitohs - wonder what the story with that was. Game plan? More keen to run vs old (junior) side?

Possession does not effect run metres on a 1:1 scale. For a middle who could play half a game and had 10 runs for 100m, a possession split of 51/49 split would give him one less set of six to work with - which could mean a 10% reduction in metres. If we take this to an extreme and look at Toby against the Panthers, 36% possession means he had 6 runs for ~50m in 8 just minutes of possession. That's a 50% reduction in possession and a 50% reduction in output. Just what we'd expect to see.

Actually I'd call 6 runs a 40% reduction there, with a 50% reduction in meters, so while it is less it is also objectively worse.
But if he is gunna be down on meters per run against anyone I will forgive him the Panthers.

In saying that per my first point if he could have not been down on meters per run that would have helped us out a bit!

As I said, hopefully just get the toe fixed up and we can compare un-impaired stats for him next season.

 

[BurgoShark]

But at the same time if the individual players get their stats up with better play the possession and field position will fix itself. You earn that possession, or you give it away. Do we beat weaker teams because we have good possession, or do we have good possession because we are outplaying them?
Did he purely play worse in these games because possession was against him? Or did he contribute to poor possession with worse (than average) play?
There is definitely a cluster of errors and penalties on your earlier graph, and very few of them are in his first 20 minutes of play.

Remember again what questions I was answering in those graphs.
1) Does Toby make most of his errors/penalties plays after being on the field for more than 20 minutes consecutively?, and
2) Does Toby miss more tackles after being on the field for more than 20 minutes consecutively? and
3) Would shortening his first stint be likely to reduce his overall amount of errors and penalties?

No, no and probably not.

There is definitely a cluster in his second stints which could mean something, but that wasn't the question I was answering. I don't think anyone is arguing that Toby should continue to play 25-30 minutes in his first stint but only 7-8 in his second, but that would actually have made a far bigger difference.

As for contributing to lack of possession and field position, obviously making errors and giving up penalties hurts, but it's not measurable.

Players stats don't go up with better play either. Not Toby's anyway. The biggest factor in how many metres Toby runs is how long he is on the field for when his team has the ball. It has nothing to do with his average length of run, being fatter so he can drag blokes for more PCMs, or playing better.

If you want to use metres as a measure of performance, you'd look in to the outliers. Toby doesn't have many (maybe round 26?) but someone like Williams or Hazelton likely would.

That earlier graph with missed tackles also marked would be interesting.

Haha that would be a mission. You have to make do with the other one which has "before 20" and "after 20".

So in his 10 games post toe injury he had only 4 which were above his season average? 4 maybe 5 of his other games were above season average.
Interesting that his best game was propped up by an unusually high inside 20 work load vs Rabbitohs - wonder what the story with that was. Game plan? More keen to run vs old (junior) side?

I remember watching that game and thinking how noticeable it was that Toby was coming back inside his 20. Pretty clearly under instructions imo. That was their first game sans-Kennedy, so that's when "Plan B" started. No Kennedy = no slingshot, so there was a team-wide trend for forwards coming back inside their end. Brailey also ran more than average in rounds 23-27.

Actually I'd call 6 runs a 40% reduction there, with a 50% reduction in meters, so while it is less it is also objectively worse.

If you want to talk about runs rather than metres... it s 40% reduction in runs with a 50% reduction in run opportunity. He actually ran more than expected.

* No Sharks middle averaged 10 runs in 40 minutes btw. That was just an example to make for easy maths. I based the model on 8 runs per 40 being the standard.

... so it's actually a 25% reduction in runs with a 50% reduction in run opportunity. He's looking even better.

But if he is gunna be down on meters per run against anyone I will forgive him the Panthers.

In saying that per my first point if he could have not been down on meters per run that would have helped us out a bit!

PCMs and "metres per run" is not a measure of player performance.

I'll let a couple of NRL middles explain it

 

[BurgoShark]

Here is a similar graph for Jack Williams (yeah - it's the Toby thread, but it's part of the same topic).



Interestingly, if we look at Toby... excluding the finals game these two guys play the majority of their games with a similar of attacking minutes - even though Toby averaged ~10 minutes more overall game time. i.e. Toby had similar attacking possession as Jack but ~7 minutes more of defence per game.

Also - as I've said a few times above, there was no difference in Toby's output in metres before or after his injury. He ran exactly the amount you'd expect. He just had a cluster of games with lower than average possession (either lower stints, low team possession, or both).

Round 26 v the Knights is really the only possible outlier. I've looked at that game in detail before. Toby's performance that day in defence was the busiest of any Sharks player this season (47 tackles in 15 minutes of defence). I think we can forgive him for running 10m less than expected.

 

[egg]

Toe injury Improving

'Contemplated retirement': Why toe injury spurred Sharks front-rower to give up alcohol

Toby Rudolf has decided to give up alcohol for a year and he told Channel Nine that he's already reaping the benefits one month…

www.theroar.com.au

 

[Sparkles]

Toe injury Improving

'Contemplated retirement': Why toe injury spurred Sharks front-rower to give up alcohol

Toby Rudolf has decided to give up alcohol for a year and he told Channel Nine that he's already reaping the benefits one month…

www.theroar.com.au

Very inflammatory statements from Toby

 

[Ryan McGoldrick #1 Fan]

Still don't rate this fella. All effort, and thats it. Too good for NSW Cup, but dont really NRL standard imo. Falls into the plodder category

 

[bort]

Still don't rate this fella. All effort, and thats it. Too good for NSW Cup, but dont really NRL standard imo. Falls into the plodder category

Man that's harsh haha
I would def be open to someone arguing he isn't one of the better starters in the NRL but I think he is making most best 17s isn't he?

 

[Sir Chadley]

I like Toby and his passion. I think he does deserve a spot in our top 17 although his handling worries me. Always seems to drop the pill in dangerous places.

 

[Super Impose]

Still don't rate this fella. All effort, and thats it. Too good for NSW Cup, but dont really NRL standard imo. Falls into the plodder category

Yeah way too harsh mate .

Competent NRL front rower ..