Predicted Round 1 team

burgess1978

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2016 team was light. Fifita was a unit - but Gal, Prior, Heighno, Taga and Boogs were all on the lighter side. Lewis was a ball of muscle but not a monster. Graham was similar to now.

They don’t need to get heavier. They need to get better.

One massive impact forward wouldn’t hurt though (no pressure Frankie).
 

slide rule

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Last year we had a tiny pack. I did spend hours a few months ago doing all the weights of the different clubs and it was clearly evident.

The entire top 8 had significantly larger packs then the Cronulla pack.

I originally read this as if you had done each club’s weight training program yourself.

That would be quite an experiment
 

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I originally read this as if you had done each club’s weight training program yourself.

That would be quite an experiment
Hahaha, nuh. Went through and totalled forward packs size (including forwards off bench).

Was interesting with this new “faster game” that the top teams still had bigger packs then the teams that missed the 8.

Also was clear that the smaller teams were giving away more meterage and you could determine within 1 or 2 places where each team came based on meterage against them.
 

Six Again

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Talakai will want to demonstrate to our new coach with a defensive mindset that he has improved on his performances from last season otherwise he is no certainty to make the 17.
Ronaldo will also need to improve on his defensive lapses . Hiroti was actually one of our better players in early part of last season before he got suspended so he is maybe a smokey to also put pressure on for wing/centre spot.
 

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Hahaha, nuh. Went through and totalled forward packs size (including forwards off bench).

Was interesting with this new “faster game” that the top teams still had bigger packs then the teams that missed the 8.

Also was clear that the smaller teams were giving away more meterage and you could determine within 1 or 2 places where each team came based on meterage against them.
Would be interesting to see if those bigger players are getting the same or less minutes now. My gut (and that's the important place to get the facts on this convo) tells me they're generally playing a little less, but could be wrong
 

burgess1978

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Hahaha, nuh. Went through and totalled forward packs size (including forwards off bench).

Was interesting with this new “faster game” that the top teams still had bigger packs then the teams that missed the 8.

Also was clear that the smaller teams were giving away more meterage and you could determine within 1 or 2 places where each team came based on meterage against them.
You have the causality the wrong way around. Good teams have the ball more. When you have the ball more you make more metres.
Ronaldo will also need to improve on his defensive lapses . Hiroti was actually one of our better players in early part of last season before he got suspended so he is maybe a smokey to also put pressure on for wing/centre spot.
WHAT? Didn’t see the Raiders, Roosters or Bulldogs games mate? You could make a case that having a competent player in his position for those games would have changed the result.
 

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Would be interesting to see if those bigger players are getting the same or less minutes now. My gut (and that's the important place to get the facts on this convo) tells me they're generally playing a little less, but could be wrong
Hahahaha,

The thing in relation to bigger players getting less minutes is that they still need other players to fill their positions when they are interchanged (No matter what, 80 minutes needs to be filled for 2 props, 2 second row, 1 lock and 1 hooker). When I calculated pack size I including the interchanges as well.

So given this “quicker game” it’s surprising that the larger packs are still finishing higher on the ladder.
 

bort

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You have the causality the wrong way around. Good teams have the ball more. When you have the ball more you make more metres.
Not necessarily. Having big strong blokes who are hard to stop and make good meters may be a significant contributing factor to a team being good. Can be easier to be good when you consistently win the field position battle.

There are a lot of elements that contribute to making meters but the reasons props are a thing in Rugby League and players keep getting bigger is that size is definitely one of them. I wouldn't say teams like those who made the finals were only good because of a big pack of course... well maybe Titans, Knights and Eels actually, those teams weren't fantastic outside of having pretty good forward packs.

I do agree good teams will have the ball more and thus make more meters but one of the reasons they are good may be they have big forwards who make meters well.

But I definitely agree for our guys
They don’t need to get heavier. They need to get better.

Although might not hurt for someone like Rudolf to add a few kg muscle of he is going to be a heavily rotated middle.
If Williams is 98kg he is actually pretty light given he is 1.84m ball of muscle.

So given this “quicker game” it’s surprising that the larger packs are still finishing higher on the ladder.
I can imagine the runs of possession that we saw swing games can benefit from having big dudes on during and immediately following.
On the flip side if your team tends to be on the wrong side of these having bigger boys may be detrimental.

A good way to win the refs favour though is to get on the front foot and have the other team back peddling. Big boys making PCM and fighting for offloads and quick PTBs is one way to get other team on the back foot.
Often big boys will make no more than one run a set but may be involved in 2 or 3 tackles a set so runs of possession keeps them them fresher too.
 
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gumby

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Wouldn’t mind this possibly

8. Uele
9. Brailey
10. Finucane
11. Williams
12. Graham
13. Mcinness

14. Tracey
15. Frudolph
16. Talakai
17. Hunt

18. Wilton
19. Nikit’s

Big bench with a lot of impact! Williams played really well I thought at second row last year.
 
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Wouldn’t mind this possibly

8. Uele
9. Brailey
10. Finucane
11. Williams
12. Graham
13. Mcinness

14. Tracey
15. Frudolph
16. Talakai
17. Hunt

18. Wilton
19. Nikit’s

Big bench with a lot of impact! Williams played really well I thought at second row last year.
Who would you have partnering Nicho?
 

gumby

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Who would you have partnering Nicho?
I’d give first shot to trindall at 7. Hynes at 6.

I forgot about Moylan. Him and Tracey to battle it out for the 14 jersey.

I think we’ll see Ronnie or Ikuvalu in the centre’s with whoever misses out there plays on the wing.
 

burgess1978

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Not necessarily. Having big strong blokes who are hard to stop and make good meters may be a significant contributing factor to a team being good. Can be easier to be good when you consistently win the field position battle.

There are a lot of elements that contribute to making meters but the reasons props are a thing in Rugby League and players keep getting bigger is that size is definitely one of them. I wouldn't say teams like those who made the finals were only good because of a big pack of course... well maybe Titans, Knights and Eels actually, those teams weren't fantastic outside of having pretty good forward packs.

I do agree good teams will have the ball more and thus make more meters but one of the reasons they are good may be they have big forwards who make meters well.
All of these points are valid. Raw "metres run" doesn't give you any measure of this though. You'd need to exclude things like kick returns, dummy half runs, intercepts, long range runs from line breaks etc. - plus have some measure of how many metres teams are making from sets starting at different parts of the field and in different situations. You'd also need to establish whether the forwards are actually doing the work, and whether it is a team trend or just one bloke. Taumalolo making 300m doesn't tell me if the Cowboys are benefitting or suffering from Jordan McLean being 118kg, and Brian To'o taking 20 dummy half runs per game tells you **** all about how good the Panthers forwards are. I'm quite sure the Sharks don't win in 2016 without the stellar yardage game of the blokes wearing 2,3,4 and 5. It's not all about big forwards.

If there was a stat for "metres from running forwards in the middle 65% of the field while in possession outside the opponents 25m" which was broken into sections on the field even further (own try line to 25, 25 to half way, half way to attacking 25m) that might give you some ammunition. There isn't though - not publicly anyway - so metres is a pretty useless stat for anything other than telling you which team had the ball more.
 
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You have the causality the wrong way around. Good teams have the ball more. When you have the ball more you make more metres.

WHAT? Didn’t see the Raiders, Roosters or Bulldogs games mate? You could make a case that having a competent player in his position for those games would have changed the result.
Agree with burgess - find it hard to ever see Hiroti being anything more then a NSW cup winger. He was given plenty of game time to show something
 
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bort

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All of these points are valid. Raw "metres run" doesn't give you any measure of this though. You'd need to exclude things like kick returns, dummy half runs, intercepts, long range runs from line breaks etc. - plus have some measure of how many metres teams are making from sets starting at different parts of the field and in different situations. You'd also need to establish whether the forwards are actually doing the work. Brian To'o taking 20 dummy half runs per game tells you **** all about how good the Panthers forwards are - and I'm quite sure the Sharks don't win in 2016 without the stellar yardage game of the blokes wearing 2,3,4 and 5.

If there was a stat for "metres from running forwards in the middle 65% of the field while in possession outside the opponents 20m line" that might give you some ammunition. There isn't though - so metres is a pretty useless stat.
Yes I agree the raw stat available definitely does not definitively give you much information whether a team makes more meters because they are good in other areas, or is good in other areas because they make more meters (and then circumstantially who is making those meters).

Fox actually have per player meter stats you can filter by 'Forwards' or 'Prop' but you'd have to try and work out relevance of minutes from there. And then look up everyone's weight to try and correlate. That's a job for a club employee.
Even then as you say the circumstances and kick returns are factors you may have to dig into.
And then heaps of other factors also that determine how good that player actually is.

All the top 8 above us with their heavier packs, is that relevant? Maybe
We also probably used more halves combos than all above us, and as per some other calculations I did they also all had the top 5 or 6 highest paid players on the field for them more than we had ours so they were getting more out of their big spends.

On Hiroti, yeah he hasn't been great, I am pretty comfortable with him being centre/winger number 6 or so though. If you are on your second fill in already he's not too bad an option to bring in. Is he about to be a breakout superstar at any moment? I'd be really surprised. But he is also 22 with 21 NRL games for 7 tries. We are all excited for Hynes who had 1 appearance by that age. Katoa really started breaking out in last couple years and was written off by quite a few, he's 2 years older than Hiroti. He'd played 28 NRL games for 7 tries by same age as Hiroti.
Now I don't have high expectations for Hiroti but it wouldn't blow my mind if he was a competent NRL starting winger/centre in a couple years.
Hopefully somewhere else...
 

Sparkles

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All of these points are valid. Raw "metres run" doesn't give you any measure of this though. You'd need to exclude things like kick returns, dummy half runs, intercepts, long range runs from line breaks etc. - plus have some measure of how many metres teams are making from sets starting at different parts of the field and in different situations. You'd also need to establish whether the forwards are actually doing the work, and whether it is a team trend or just one bloke. Taumalolo making 300m doesn't tell me if the Cowboys are benefitting or suffering from Jordan McLean being 118kg, and Brian To'o taking 20 dummy half runs per game tells you **** all about how good the Panthers forwards are. I'm quite sure the Sharks don't win in 2016 without the stellar yardage game of the blokes wearing 2,3,4 and 5. It's not all about big forwards.

If there was a stat for "metres from running forwards in the middle 65% of the field while in possession outside the opponents 25m" which was broken into sections on the field even further (own try line to 25, 25 to half way, half way to attacking 25m) that might give you some ammunition. There isn't though - not publicly anyway - so metres is a pretty useless stat for anything other than telling you which team had the ball more.
Good points. It's back to the 'how do you measure things' issue.

Do forwards make less runs these days? The best teams seem to have strong outside backs to take the first 3ish carries out of their end. And in today's game with less stoppages on turnovers, half the time they're just trying to get back into position through a fair chunk of the set. That doesn't look to leave a lot of runs left for the big pigs.
 

Six Again

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You have the causality the wrong way around. Good teams have the ball more. When you have the ball more you make more metres.

WHAT? Didn’t see the Raiders, Roosters or Bulldogs games mate? You could make a case that having a competent player in his position for those games would have I was at the Raiders & Bulldogs games & I was also at the trial against the Bulldogs where I thought Hiroti had a shocker .
 

Six Again

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You have the causality the wrong way around. Good teams have the ball more. When you have the ball more you make more metres.

WHAT? Didn’t see the Raiders, Roosters or Bulldogs games mate? You could make a case that having a competent player in his position for those games would have changed the result.
I was at the Raiders & Bulldogs games & also at trial against Bulldogs where Hiroti had a shocker.

He certainly wasn't our worst in early part of the season & certainly couldn't be blamed for that terrible team performance against the Bulldogs.

I also saw him make two big effort plays against the Dragons ( first one got him suspended when he stopped a certain try ) & the last one got us close enough for Chad to kick the field goal ( that was just after he had knocked on in our 20 m ). Helping us beat the Dragons gets him extra brownie points in my eyes.

Am I related to Hiroti , no - just was trying to make the point I don't think Ronaldo is the certainty to make the 17 that he may have been whenever he was fit to play last year .
 
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