Missed conversions - how it cost us

[Mark^Bastard]

Why a kicking coach though? I can't kick goals but if I could I don't think it's something you forget how to do. SJ is 75%ish and Chad is around 70%. I don't get why they keep missing.

They exist for a reason. There's a lot that goes into kicking at an elite level. Tiny little changes physically and mentally.

All three of our kickers are capable of going on big 100% kicking streaks. Chad has done it before. SJ is on I believe 10 in a row right now. Getting in the zone is what a coach is for.

 

[HaroldBishop]

Yep to me that's the logical way to look at it.

From a statistics point of view there'd be a normal distribution for a lot of aspects of RL like goal kicking % and tackle efficiency etc.

If the normal goal kicking % is say 75%, kicking at 1 from 5 is clearly in the lower percentile. If a player has tackled 40 times and misses the 41st and it leads to a try, that's far less compelling because he's still tackling at 40/41 which is definitely not in the failure part of a bell curve. I mean almost all tries come off the back of missed tackles, it's a normal part of the game. Just like missing conversions is normal. It's completely abnormal to miss that many.

Whatever aspects are statistically the most abnormally negative deserve the blame for losses first and foremost.

There's no guarantee we win if we convert them all, because of chaos theory and all that, but it's still by far the most relevant thing to bitch and moan about.

But the game wouldn't be played the same way, I don't see how it's logical.

The opposition changes the way they play if they're chasing more points.

 

[Milkshark]

But the game wouldn't be played the same way, I don't see how it's logical.

The opposition changes the way they play if they're chasing more points.

I get where you are coming from and agree, but goal kicking has let us down this year and contributed to some of our losses.

An example of they way you are thinking and why I agree with you. Referee howlers with penalties and trys given. So often people say they didn't change the result of the game. But it's completely not true.

League is a momentum game, giving penalties away at key moments can give all the momentum to one team and vice versa, this has huge impacts on the results of the game. And trys given or denied, same again. It's also a mindset thing for the players.

 

[Mark^Bastard]

But the game wouldn't be played the same way, I don't see how it's logical.

The opposition changes the way they play if they're chasing more points.

There is no guarantee that a higher kicking percentage would guarantee a win. We all know that. The chaos argument is something you put aside so you can discuss what is tangible. Otherwise we may as well lock the thread.

If your ship is taking on water because there's a big hole in it, people would say you didn't make it to the destination because there was a hole in the boat. It doesn't mean if the hole wasn't there you wouldn't get raped and killed by a pack of pirate mermen and therefore the hole was irrelevant.

 

[Mark^Bastard]

I get where you are coming from and agree, but goal kicking has let us down this year and contributed to some of our losses.

An example of they way you are thinking and why I agree with you. Referee howlers with penalties and trys given. So often people say they didn't change the result of the game. But it's completely not true.

League is a momentum game, giving penalties away at key moments can give all the momentum to one team and vice versa, this has huge impacts on the results of the game. And trys given or denied, same again. It's also a mindset thing for the players.

Absolutely. You can be applying pressure to a team for the opening 25 minutes and then the ref undoes all the hard work by giving them a soft penalty.

 

[bort]

League is a momentum game, giving penalties away at key moments can give all the momentum to one team and vice versa, this has huge impacts on the results of the game. And trys given or denied, same again. It's also a mindset thing for the players.

As it turns out refs can turn any penalty into a key moment by allowing infinite advantage.

In this game I think 2/3 goals massively increases our chance to win. They would have come out of halftime thinking ‘12 points is that all they’ve got’ two tries and they had us caught and from there we were on our heels trying to keep up.

If we’d made it a touch harder they would have had to chase third try and whilst it’s certainly possible they could have scored it we also had other scoring opportunities (took 2 field goals) so I think we could have got the win.

 

[Milkshark]

As it turns out refs can turn any penalty into a key moment by allowing infinite advantage.

In this game I think 2/3 goals massively increases our chance to win. They would have come out of halftime thinking ‘12 points is that all they’ve got’ two tries and they had us caught and from there we were on our heels trying to keep up.

If we’d made it a touch harder they would have had to chase third try and whilst it’s certainly possible they could have scored it we also had other scoring opportunities (took 2 field goals) so I think we could have got the win.

Yep the mindset for us would have been more confident, and for the raiders, the weak minds would have given up.

Were you at the game? The commentators said the refs can play advantage for an entire set of 6 if they like. Not sure if thats a legit rule or not.

In union they play heaps of advantage, not sure I remember so much being given in a league before though.

 

[kiwishark]

J not C

 

[bort]

Yep the mindset for us would have been more confident, and for the raiders, the weak minds would have given up.

Were you at the game? The commentators said the refs can play advantage for an entire set of 6 if they like. Not sure if thats a legit rule or not.

In union they play heaps of advantage, not sure I remember so much being given in a league before though.

No I don’t make it to many games, haven’t seen one at Shark Park for probably close to 20 years.

As both a player and a fan I always wanted to see consistency from refs. There was no consistency in letting that play unfold for multiple more tackles, even if it was fine by the letter of the law.

Either advantage was taken or it should have been taken back after next tackle. If you are able to play on from a penalty moment do you now get your whole set before you can go back to the penalty? Should you expect that?
Had we know the referee was playing advantage would we have been better served giving away another penalty rather than let them have repeated cracks at our line?

It wasn’t an especially bad hit but bit disappointing by Wade given how much they have been (with some consistency) cracking down on off the ball hits.

 

[snowman]

Yep the mindset for us would have been more confident, and for the raiders, the weak minds would have given up.

Were you at the game? The commentators said the refs can play advantage for an entire set of 6 if they like. Not sure if thats a legit rule or not.

In union they play heaps of advantage, not sure I remember so much being given in a league before though.

the rules changed on that and could only be done on a reportable offence - no one was put on report

 

[Mark^Bastard]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nrl/comments/cyi4s4/2019_nrl_ladder_if_every_goal_attempt_was/

• MELBOURNE
  
• SYDNEY
  
• SOUTHS
  
• CRONULLA
  
• PARRAMATTA
  
• CANBERRA
  
• MANLY
  
• WESTS
  
• NEWCASTLE
  
• NEW ZEALAND
  
• NTH QUEENSLAND
  
• BRISBANE
  
• PENRITH
  
• CANTEBURY
  
• ST GEORGE
  
• GOLD COAST

 

[HaroldBishop]

Yep the mindset for us would have been more confident, and for the raiders, the weak minds would have given up.

Were you at the game? The commentators said the refs can play advantage for an entire set of 6 if they like. Not sure if thats a legit rule or not.

In union they play heaps of advantage, not sure I remember so much being given in a league before though.

Yeah what Snowman said. I have literally never seen it happen before, or can't remember.

That really infuriated me.

 

[Milkshark]

Reddit hey, I see you're a man of culture also

 

[HaroldBishop]

As it turns out refs can turn any penalty into a key moment by allowing infinite advantage.

In this game I think 2/3 goals massively increases our chance to win. They would have come out of halftime thinking ‘12 points is that all they’ve got’ two tries and they had us caught and from there we were on our heels trying to keep up.

If we’d made it a touch harder they would have had to chase third try and whilst it’s certainly possible they could have scored it we also had other scoring opportunities (took 2 field goals) so I think we could have got the win.

It would 100% increase our chances of winning, anyone saying otherwise is an idiot.

I'm just saying it can't be said it definitely cost us the game.

 

[Milkshark]

I have no issue with giving advantage when inside the 20 or 10, it will stop teams from giving away penalties so they can get their line set.

Keep it this way as long as all games are now reffed the same way.

But they need to introduce a signal to the defending team that advantage is being played, I think union does that?

 

[HaroldBishop]

I have no issue with giving advantage when inside the 20 or 10, it will stop teams from giving away penalties so they can get their line set.

Keep it this way as long as all games are now reffed the same way.

But they need to introduce a signal to the defending team that advantage is being played, I think union does that?

Advantage should never go past a completed tackle in any game. People bring up Union, we're not Union.

Re deliberate penalties....it's so obvious when teams do it. The refs need to use the bin a heap more.

 

[Milkshark]

Advantage should never go past a completed tackle in any game. People bring up Union, we're not Union.

Re deliberate penalties....it's so obvious when teams do it. The refs need to use the bin a heap more.

My thing is with these penalties, it stops play, it gives the defending exactly what they want.

Tackle given away on tackle 2, penalty given, reset tackle count, it only gives the defending team 2 extra tackles to make.

I would let the attacking team complete their set and then last tackle, reset the tackle count. It might stop some of these stupid penalties given away.

 

[BurgoShark]

You’ve always been able to go back and award a penalty. Before touchies were mic’d up, and in all other leagues where they are not, the rule is that the touchie can run in during play to make a report and it must be a penalty. If he runs in during a break in play (i.e. a few tackles later after the ball is dropped or goes out) it is up to the ref’s discretion as to whether a penalty is justified.

As for goal kicking hurting us. Yep - that’s true. Going to sleep with 10+ point leads is hurting us more though.

 

[HaroldBishop]

You’ve always been able to go back and award a penalty. Before touchies were mic’d up, and in all other leagues where they are not, the rule is that the touchie can run in during play to make a report and it must be a penalty. If he runs in during a break in play (i.e. a few tackles later after the ball is dropped or goes out) it is up to the ref’s discretion as to whether a penalty is justified.

As for goal kicking hurting us. Yep - that’s true. Going to sleep with 10+ point leads is hurting us more though.

I know but when does it ever happen, apart from yesterday?

 

[Western Sharkie]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nrl/comments/cyi4s4/2019_nrl_ladder_if_every_goal_attempt_was/

• MELBOURNE
  
• SYDNEY
  
• SOUTHS
  
• CRONULLA
  
• PARRAMATTA
  
• CANBERRA
  
• MANLY
  
• WESTS
  
• NEWCASTLE
  
• NEW ZEALAND
  
• NTH QUEENSLAND
  
• BRISBANE
  
• PENRITH
  
• CANTEBURY
  
• ST GEORGE
  
• GOLD COAST

Let’s get rid of conversions and have all tries valued at 6 points!