Alternative Ladder- Top 8 v Top 8

[Wibble]

I have been saying for a while that the Shark's attack is fine when it comes to big games, we just don't put helpless opponent's to the sword. To see if that is true, I created an "alternative" ladder with jst the results of the top 8 as of round 24) vs the top 8.

It is quite surprising. The Sharks are the top, just over Melbourne, with a fair drop away to the rest.

Here is the ladder, with % wins and % points for/against instead of points and differential, as different teams have played a different number of games v other top 8 teams.

Team.....Played..Wins...Win %.....For....Against........%
Sharks......10.......8.......80%......167.....149.........112%
Storm.......11.......8.......73%......235.....125.........188%
Dragons....11.......6.......55%......212.....179.........118%
Manly.......11.......5.......45%......231.....173.........134%
Raiders.....12.......5.......42%......242......284.........85%
Broncos....10.......4.......40%......176......211..........83%
Roosters...11.......4.......36%......148......246..........60%
Knights.....10.......3.......30%......176......220..........80%

From this, I have no concerns about our attack going into the finals, and you'd have to say we are as good a chance of beating a top team as the "favourites", Melbourne and Manly (and surely the Roosters are over inflated odds from this data).

 

[scott17]

thats vey interesting

good work.

 

[Megashark]

Nice work from our resident statistician!

 

[Bungy]

it's all about when your team peeks, the sharks are starting to peek now, the roosters are passed it hopefully and a few others might too soon, manly maybe

 

[bort]

i think ill have to come back to this ahaha
:drunk

 

[Wibble]

Thanks Scott and Mega!:cheers

I have been a little slow lately, but when I saw how poorly Manly have gone against the other top 8, I had to let everyone know

I agree Bungy, that peeking at the right time seems to help. Dominating all year like the Storm have works too, but a team that peeks at the right time can often snatch a major preliminary final win against a team that finished higher on the ladder.

It certainly seems the Roosters are down, Sharks and Raiders up. Maybe Broncos and Dragons too, and Melbourne are always at peek performance. It really is an open field, though the Storm deserve to be favourites.

Don't have too big a hangover Bort, Sharks need your support still :drunk

 

[sharkie_09]

i really hope we can nab second or even first i would love to not have to play the storm anywhere else but the grand final

 

[Wibble]

If we finish 3rd, we can only play 1st (assuming at the moment that will be Melbourne) in the gf unless 1st lose their first game.

Mind you, 2nd would still be nice. From there, even if we lost the first game we would only meet Melbourne (if 1st) in the gf. The added bonus would be getting a week off if we win the first finals match.

There is debate every year over the benefit of that week off, but it does reduce the number of games you have to win to make the gf.

Regardless, the Sharks have form against the top 8, seem to be approaching their peek at the right time, and are on track to face Melbourne in the grand final. It is getting exciting!

 

[zakspiders]

i think the reality of the comp is this.

melbourne will make the grandfinal.

i think only us or bris are the team to challenge them.(manly's lost the plot.)

 

[Bungy]

melbourne are not super human they too might be passed their peek hopefully come semi-final time

 

[bris_shark]

Even if we do end up third, which looks likely, we still may get the week off. Team 7 has a pretty good record of upsetting Team 2.

 

[zakspiders]

manly's prob going to be team2 but they look fragile lately and could poss drop the first game if they come up against the goons or warriors.

 

[IronShark]

I have been saying for a while that the Shark's attack is fine when it comes to big games, we just don't put helpless opponent's to the sword. To see if that is true, I created an "alternative" ladder with jst the results of the top 8 as of round 24) vs the top 8.

It is quite surprising. The Sharks are the top, just over Melbourne, with a fair drop away to the rest.

Mate, this is top work and just what I need to hear with finals just around the corner!
I think there is no chance of Melbourne not making the GF and I think there is no chance of Manly beating Melbourne, in any scenario. The Storm just seem to have some psychological edge on them, I really don't think the Manly players believe they can beat the Storm.

On the other hand, I really don't think the Sharks players believe there is a team they cannot beat and this could prove the difference.

Bring on the finals I say!

 

[bort]

now that i can read it
i like it

 

[sharks195]

Certainly does prove that we can keep up with the top teams. Unlike the Roosters.

 

[brad]

so the 2 losses were verse brisbane up there and manly at home

 

[Wibble]

A small but significant update after round 25 of the top 8 v top 8 ladder, with only the Knights V Storm game affecting anything.

Happily, it makes the Sharks look even better against top sides with the Storm slipping to a 67% win rate, and the Roosters are currently the most inneffective finals bound team against the main contenders.

Team.....Played..Wins...Win %.....For....Against........%
Sharks......10.......8.......80%......167.....149.........112%
Storm.......12.......8.......67%......251.....141.........178%
Dragons....11.......6.......55%......212.....179.........118%
Manly.......11.......5.......45%......231.....173.........134%
Raiders.....12.......5.......42%......242......284.........85%
Broncos....10.......4.......40%......176......211..........83%
Knights.....11.......4.......36%......193......236..........82%
Roosters...11.......4.......36%......148......246..........60%

 

[sharks195]

That win was pretty significant for Newcastle though.

 

[gavin07]

It is really pleasing going into the finals knowing we have beaten every team this year (except bulldogs i think !).

 

[Wibble]

The Dragons and Broncos have reasonable records v the top 8, so could prove a nuisance if the Sharks have to play them in the first final. The Roosters are in poor form and haven't performed well against the other top sides. Fortunately, we will probably play the loser of the Roosters/Dragons match, so they will probably be a bit down. If we play the Broncos, it will also be because they have just lost.

The Raiders are almost certainly going to finish 7th, and the Knights or Warriors 8th. Unfortunately, I can't see any of these teams bothering Manly or Melbourne in the first week, so the Sharks are unlikely to get any huge benefit from winning their first final.

If the Sharks win the first final and still have to play in the second week, it will also be against a team coming off a loss (most likely the loser of a Broncos/Dragons first finals round clash).

If we win that, we would then play the runners up for the minor premiership for a place in the grand final. It depends on how much Melbourne beat Souths by (in Melbourne) compared to Manly beating Penrith (in Penrith), but with a slight lead in dfferentials and Penrith's terrible form, I think Manly will be minor premiers.

So the Sharks will quite possibly play a Melbourne team who has lost to the Knights, beaten Souths at home, beaten an injury destroyed Canberra at home, and had a week off. Melbourne would be "favourites" with virtually everyone, but an ambush is quite likely.

If we make it to the grand final, we will have played through "the tough half" of the draw, and would probably play the minor premiers. If that ends up being a Manly/Sharks grand final, we would have better "form" v the top 8, and coming through the finals. It would be unbelievably sweet to beat Manly for a premiership, and utterly soul destroying to lose to them in another grand final.

Well, there are plenty of things that can affect how the finals play out. I wouldn't discount the Broncos or Dragons winning through to the grand final over Manly on the other side of the finals draw. Their record vs top 8 teams is similar to Manly's. Maybe a Sharks v Dragons grand final?

That's all my supposin', now bring on the finals!