Should AFL's Poor Four clubs feel nervous?
Should AFL's Poor Four clubs feel nervous?The Roar (blog)But after seeing
Cronulla fans endure endless speculation about the Sharks' future this year, I have started to feel a genuine concern for the Poor Four.
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Should AFL’s Poor Four clubs feel nervous?
By Paul J
22-Sep-2009
The AFL is cashed up after its last TV rights deal and the promise of perhaps one billion dollars from its next one. Long since enjoying almost complete domination of the four southern states, the king of the mountain has had to decide where to spend all its well earned riches.
It just seemed to made sense to concentrate on converting the two remaining northern rugby states.
Sounds like a great idea, except that one quarter of the current AFL clubs are flat broke. Stone cold broke and relying on AFL assistance to stay afloat.
These are, of course, the Demons, Kangaroos, Bulldogs, and Port. For abbreviations sake, I’ll call them ‘The Poor Four’.
The AFL has discussed implementing changes that will allow the poor clubs to grow while allowing the rich clubs to remain strong, but this seems like the political hot air given to Tasmanian fans: “We were very impressed with the Tasmanian bid for inclusion in the AFL and hope to see a Tasmanian AFL team in the future”.
As primarily a Brisbane Broncos fan, I do enjoy watching the Lions play, and AFL in general. But after seeing Cronulla fans endure endless speculation about the Sharks’ future this year, I have started to feel a genuine concern for the Poor Four.
So much has been written about the AFL’s expansion into Western Sydney and the Gold Coast, the heart land of rugby league, that all the media seem to be concentrating on is the code war or AFL’s so called arrogance.
From what I’ve seen, little has been discussed on what AFL expansion will mean to the future of the Poor Four.
The only way the Poor Four can feel their future is somewhat secure is if the AFL expansion is an initial success or an immediate dismal failure.
The first option is, of course, by far the best.
If it is an immediate success, then the AFL can afford to not just keep the Poor Four afloat indefinitely, but will be able to throw serious money at their current problems in a bid to make them profitable.
They can make this a long term goal without worrying about jealousies from other clubs.
Alternatively, if the expansion is an immediate dismal failure, the AFL may be forced to cut their losses and concentrate on their own backyard and those most in need.
Unfortunately for the Poor Four, neither of these outcomes seem very likely.
The most likely outcome is average to poor crowds and television ratings for at least the short term for Western Sydney and the Gold Coast, while potentially diluting the current support of the Swans and Lions.
It has taken decades for the Swans and Lions to get where they are and the AFL should be congratulated on the success these teams have achieved. But neither has greatly changed the philosophy of the average New South Wales and Queensland League or Union fan, despite two Swans and four Lions grand final appearances in the current decade.
Andrew Demetriou has already stated the success or failure of the expansion will probably not be known for 20 years, and this will mean a lot of AFL cash will be needed to support the two new teams whilst having to prop up the Poor Four at the same time.
This can not be good news for the Poor Four.
One reason for the push for an eighteen team competition is to have a ninth game to sell to the networks. It would make perfect sense if the two new teams were another Collingwood and Essendon, but how long will the network’s patience last if they are contractually forced to show a poor rating Western Sydney or Gold Coast game in New South Wales and Queensland if they could get better ratings showing re-runs of Master Chef or Australian Idol?
What if the AFL decides the future is better going back to a sixteen team competition?
The AFL leadership are stubborn, confident, relentless and, at times, arrogant (just what the NRL and ARU leadership need to be more like) and if they are going to remove two teams, they will refuse to endure the humiliation of removing the Western Sydney or Gold Coast teams after the millions already spent.
If they stay with eighteen teams, there may be a Poor Six instead of a Poor Four. Either way, it seems more likely they’ll remove one of the Poor Four than the new clubs, as they will at least be seen to have more potential for the future.
It is fascinating and terrifying how quickly a once old and proud club can disappear in a merger, or just disappear altogether, and then be completely forgotten.
Just ask South Melbourne or North Sydney.
Footy can mean so much to a fan regardless of who they support, and passionate fans of the Poor Four may well wonder if the AFL is genuinely concerned with their long term future if they decide to give a seemingly bottomless line of credit to expansion instead of making sure long-serving proud clubs are here to stay.