Our defence

[bort]

Do you know what % we had the ball both games ?
I wonder if we also had the 2nd least time with ball in hand too
Obviously you'd think if a team averaged 70 % with the ball their missed tackles would be low.

46% possession in both games so time without the ball definitely a contributor.
Not sure where that would sit for team averages for season so far but definitely not in the top half

13th worst completion needs to improve too

 

[egg]

Thanks Bort ,
All in all bottom line , we still need to improve .
But I wonder how if every team had their missed tackle percentages corrected to a 50% possession base , how it would all stack up
eg Something like
Sharks 50% Base to 46% Sharks actual meaning = 4% extra defence = a 4% reduction of actual missed tackles = ?
Storm say 60% with ball from 50% Base = 20% less defending than base = 20% addition to actual missed tackles
Things might even out when all teams equated

 

[BurgoShark]

Thanks Bort ,
All in all bottom line , we still need to improve .
But I wonder how if every team had their missed tackle percentages corrected to a 50% possession base , how it would all stack up
eg Something like
Sharks 50% Base to 46% Sharks actual meaning = 4% extra defence = a 4% reduction of actual missed tackles = ?
Storm say 60% with ball from 50% Base = 20% less defending than base = 20% addition to actual missed tackles
Things might even out when all teams equated

I would expect this to be the case, up to a point. Once you hit ridiculous possession rates teams will obviously get tired and miss more tackles.

I'm not looking at other teams, but I could show whether in 2021 (for the Sharks) a lower possession rate correlates with more total missed tackles or a worse tackle efficiency. I have all of the data I need to be able to do that. Just need to create the graph.

 

[bort]

Great news is, that is an easy comparison, don't even really need to adjust for %
Storm one of the few teams that have had the ball less than us

Storm
45% 21 missed
46% 39 missed

Us
46% 44 missed
46% 37 missed

Correction to what I wrote earlier, we are 13th for possession. Ahead of Broncos, Storm, Sea Eagles
Completion we are 11th, Storm are up at 7th

I would expect this to be the case, up to a point. Once you hit ridiculous possession rates teams will obviously get tired and miss more tackles.

I'm not looking at other teams, but I could show whether in 2021 (for the Sharks) a lower possession rate correlates with more total missed tackles or a worse tackle efficiency. I have all of the data I need to be able to do that. Just need to create the graph.

On that note I am not surprised at all we have a big number for Raiders game, we really went under the pump in that one their possesion at half time was 60% maybe even higher. Doesn't do us any favours then but some of that early fatigue impacts us for the rest of the game.

 

[BurgoShark]

On that note I am not surprised at all we have a big number for Raiders game, we really went under the pump in that one their possesion at half time was 60% maybe even higher. Doesn't do us any favours then but some of that early fatigue impacts us for the rest of the game.

We did get a big swing later on in the game.

 

[BurgoShark]

OK egg - here is the first one. Middle forwards only.

This is the "Captain Obvious" graph. When the Sharks have less of the ball they attempt more tackles.

 

[BurgoShark]

... and here is missed/ineffective tackles versus possession.

Again pretty straight forward. The more tackles you make the more tackles you miss.

 

[bort]

We did get a big swing later on in the game.

We did which evened possession up a bit (to 46%) but the fatigue damage was done early.

What about % of tackles missed by possession?
ie we miss 10% of tackles at 50% possession but at 46% possession we miss 14% of tackles etc - does that make sense?
(those aren't real numbers, just example)

 

[Sir Chadley]

I worry when we have the ball for long periods but don't score. You know, have 3 or 4 sets on the opponents line and come away with nothing.

 

[bort]

I worry when we have the ball for long periods but don't score. You know, have 3 or 4 sets on the opponents line and come away with nothing.

Worry no more Chad
We will either score or get tackled on the last for a turn over
No danger of repeat sets at the moment!

 

[BurgoShark]

BUT ... there is no real correlation between tackle efficiency and possession - other than when it's more than a 56/44 split.

 

[bort]

I'm surprised it is that similar

 

[BurgoShark]

I'm surprised it is that similar

It is the 2021 Sharks. They missed a lot of tackles no matter what.

I looked at the individual players too - and they each followed the team trend (or were close enough to it).

Here is Toby.

 

[bort]

It is the 2021 Sharks. They missed a lot of tackles no matter what.

That's true, instead of pressure under fatigue it just shows us general incompetence.

I wonder if there'd be a statistically relevant difference if you looked at games where possession was greater than X in first 30 or 40 minutes.
ie in games where we have flood of possession against us early, no matter how even it ends up, are we more inefficient than games where possession is relatively even, and again vs games where we dominate early possession.

I assume you're not sitting on the halftime possession numbers though

 

[BurgoShark]

As I've said b

That's true, instead of pressure under fatigue it just shows us general incompetence.

I wonder if there'd be a statistically relevant difference if you looked at games where possession was greater than X in first 30 or 40 minutes.
ie in games where we have flood of possession against us early, no matter how even it ends up, are we more inefficient than games where possession is relatively even, and again vs games where we dominate early possession.

I assume you're not sitting on the halftime possession numbers though

I would love to have this actual info to feed in to the model, but it's not available. E.g. Royce Hunt looked like a beast vs Canberra statistically because the team had an 87% possession rate while he was on the field.

I think what the model does show (so far) is that when possession is 45/55 or closer, "fatigue" is more closely related to how many minutes an individual plays. Most middles start to become less effective after 20 minutes, which is why the Finucane's of teh world are so bloody valuable.

 

[egg]

It will be VERY interesting to see our missed tackle stats when we get games with more than 50% possession .
Well done lads - thanks

 

[bort]

As I've said b

I would love to have this actual info to feed in to the model, but it's not available. E.g. Royce Hunt looked like a beast vs Canberra statistically because the team had an 87% possession rate while he was on the field.

I think what the model does show (so far) is that when possession is 45/55 or closer, "fatigue" is more closely related to how many minutes an individual plays. Most middles start to become less effective after 20 minutes, which is why the Finucane's of teh world are so bloody valuable.

Was watching Bloke in a Bar the other day (with Sandor Earl as a guest) they were speaking about how it is rare to have a player with the work ethic of a Finucane and you feel blessed to have one in your team... and Sharks have him and another in McInnes which is insane. They were trying to think of a previous team which has two elite workhorses (/ elite preppers) they could compare to having Finucane and McInnes and they couldn't think of any.

 

[BurgoShark]

It will be VERY interesting to see our missed tackle stats when we get games with more than 50% possession .
Well done lads - thanks

That's what the graph shows mate.

Did you want to specifically see 1-50 versus 50+? Here you go.

Tackle efficiency is not correlated with possession.

 

[BurgoShark]

Was watching Bloke in a Bar the other day (with Sandor Earl as a guest) they were speaking about how it is rare to have a player with the work ethic of a Finucane and you feel blessed to have one in your team... and Sharks have him and another in McInnes which is insane. They were trying to think of a previous team which has two elite workhorses (/ elite preppers) they could compare to having Finucane and McInnes and they couldn't think of any.

Larson and Moore?

 

[egg]

That's what the graph shows mate.

Did you want to specifically see 1-50 versus 50+? Here you go.

Tackle efficiency is not correlated with possession.

View attachment 27043

Wow , a bit surprising .
Still feels if we can hold the ball , and not be under the pump , that in theory the missed tackles should go down . ( graph does say no )
Then again , if you defend your line set after set after set , it means you are defending well and not missing tackles or there'd be tries ..
Perhaps It would then be the open field where you might then feel the pinch and then start to miss tackles .