Fancy Stats for Sharks 2022 Season

BurgoShark

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Putting together the final fancy stats for 2022. Something else to mull over in the offseason. The model remains the same, but I've done some extra work on how some of the info is presented. There is a brief explanation in the summary for each guy, but for those who want a more detailed rundown...

Middle Forward Output - explained.
The model calculates the run metres for each player on a per-game basis, and then provides a score which is best described as "metres run per 40 minutes of possession". i.e. if he played 80 minutes, the team had the ball for exactly half the time, and he was able to sustain this output for the entire duration, this is how many metres he would run for.

The score doesn't account for total minutes played, or for the player's defensive work rate or effectiveness. Those things are reflected elsewhere in the player's summary below, which can help demonstrate that different players will excel in varying roles (e.g. Hunt will almost always score higher than Finucane because he gets lots of metres while playing very few minutes).

Finally, I've added each player's NRL.com "Average Metres per game" to demonstrate how much this can be impacted by variables like in-game injuries, being used in other positions, etc.

As with all models, it's flawed - but it is a better indicator of middle forward output than anything you can find on the NRL web site.

Enjoy.

Starting with Jack Williams because he played only 6 games so it the easiest :)

Each time I do one of these I'll drop it in here and also in the thread for the individual player.
 

BurgoShark

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1669420070515.png

Small sample size (6 games) and limited usage (161 minutes total) for Jack Williams in 2022.

Copped a bit of flack on the forum for being "not as good" this year. I think that can translated as "didn't play enough" because he was fair busier defensively and almost as good in attack.

Playing less than 40 was still the sweet spot for Jack.
 
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BurgoShark

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Dale Finucane

1669420175923.png

Just like Cam. Great signing.
 
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BurgoShark

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Toby Rudolf

1669420219451.png

More of the same for Toby. Still not up to 2020 levels in terms of attacking impact, but he is playing a lot more minutes now.
 
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BurgoShark

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Braden Hamlin-Uele

1669420257195.png

Up there with Williams and Hunt for the "bloke who had a good year but NRL average stats make him look ordinary" awards.

Slightly higher output off the bench will be because he played some really short impact stints from the bench coming back from injury (23, 24, 20, 27).
 
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BurgoShark

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That's it for returning Sharks NRL middles.

Not going to bother with the retired players or the part-time middles, and none of the depth guys played enough for the stats to be meaningful.

I'll update this next week with Kaufusi, plus the output for both Hazelton and Colquhoun from the NSW Cup.
 
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So what I'm hearing Burgo is Hunt and Toby need to start with Dale. Cam, Jack and Bhu off the bench?

How does Oregan rate?
 

BurgoShark

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So what I'm hearing Burgo is Hunt and Toby need to start with Dale. Cam, Jack and Bhu off the bench?

How does Oregan rate?
Not sure that is what the model is telling us. In general, when players come off the bench they play less minutes. For BHU for example, the higher output from the bench is reflected in the graph next to it.

.... BUT ... these graphs don't actually express that because they are two separate pieces of information. I think what I need to do is merge the data in these two graphs so that they are shown together for context.

Oregon is coming...


1669417863030.png
 

BurgoShark

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@Proud Shark I've merged those two, which now gives a better indication of why some players show as being better from the bench.

It will looks good for Royce.

Kaufusi in 2021 scored 188, and usually played 30-50 minutes. good numbers.
 
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BurgoShark

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Everyone we have is a workhorse?
These are middle forwards we are talking about. They are the busiest blokes on the field.

Being somewhere in the upper-right box means the player has a high work-rate in both attack and defence. The closer you are to the far right corner makes you more of an overall workhorse.

One way to understand the quadrant would be...

- Paul Gallen would be jammed in the top right corner (heaps of metres and tackles)
- Andrew McCullough would be jammed in the top left corner (heaps of tackles, bugger all metres)
- Talakai v Manly would be jammed in the bottom right corner (heaps of metres, not many tackles)
- A player who wasn't involved at all would be jammed in the bottom left corner (didn't run or tackle)
- Most second rowers would probably fall somewhere well above the horizontal line, but very few would be towards the right (more tackling than running)

A middle who plays 20 minutes, runs 30-35 metres, and makes 6-8 tackles would land right on the crosshairs... because at 80-minutes pace that is 120-14 metres and 25-30 tackles. Decent without being outstanding.

20 minutes on the filed is 10 minutes with the ball, so maybe 7-8 sets of six for each team If you have an 8 metre run half in half your team's sets, and make 1 tackle in each of the opposition's sets while you are on the field, that's pretty much a bog-standard stint for a bench middle - so you land on the bullseye.

In saying all of that, the purpose of that quadrant is to show the player's defensive output versus their attacking output. It's not meant for comparing players. If you want to see who actually gets through the most work on the field by comparison, that's a different quadrant, because it needs to consider minutes played. That one is coming once I've done the other 3 guys (Kaufusi, Colquhoun, Hazelton).
 
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BurgoShark

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Not going to do the full report for them, but on the quadrant Fifita sits right with Royce Hunt (lots of attack and defence), and Tolman sits right with Jack Williams (a lot of tackling, but less metres).
 

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These are middle forwards we are talking about. They are the busiest blokes on the field.

Being somewhere in the upper-right box means the player has a high work-rate in both attack and defence. The closer you are to the far right corner makes you more of an overall workhorse.

One way to understand the quadrant would be...

- Paul Gallen would be jammed in the top right corner (heaps of metres and tackles)
- Andrew McCullough would be jammed in the top left corner (heaps of tackles, bugger all metres)
- Talakai v Manly would be jammed in the bottom right corner (heaps of metres, not many tackles)
- A player who wasn't involved at all would be jammed in the bottom left corner (didn't run or tackle)
- Most second rowers would probably fall somewhere well above the horizontal line, but very few would be towards the right (more tackling than running)

A middle who plays 20 minutes, runs 30-35 metres, and makes 6-8 tackles would land right on the crosshairs... because at 80-minutes pace that is 120-14 metres and 25-30 tackles. Decent without being outstanding.

20 minutes on the filed is 10 minutes with the ball, so maybe 7-8 sets of six for each team If you have an 8 metre run half in half your team's sets, and make 1 tackle in each of the opposition's sets while you are on the field, that's pretty much a bog-standard stint for a bench middle - so you land on the bullseye.

In saying all of that, the purpose of that quadrant is to show the player's defensive output versus their attacking output. It's not meant for comparing players. If you want to see who actually gets through the most work on the field by comparison, that's a different quadrant, because it needs to consider minutes played. That one is coming once I've done the other 3 guys (Kaufusi, Colquhoun, Hazelton).
I imagine Latrell would make the graph implode
 

BurgoShark

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So Chad Townend then
Most halves make plenty of tackles. Enough to keep them out of the corner. Maybe Soward back in his day when he defended on the wing could be a good example.
I imagine Latrell would make the graph implode
Latrell would be about as close to the bottom left as any player you could name. Fullbacks rate very poorly as middle forwards in this model.

100m in 80 minutes is good for a fullback, but awful for a middle forward - and they make bugger all tackles.
 
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