Career Trajectory for Star Fullbacks (Holmes Comparison)

[BurgoShark]

It's getting a bit annoying seeing people complain about Holmes. He's not an elite fullback (yet) but we need to move on from Barba and give the kid time. I can understand the frustration of our attack not being as polished as it was last year, and I fully agree that Val is not as good now as Barba was last year, but when people say that Val isn't going to become a top tier fullback I think that is unfair and impatient. The bottom line in that we don't know how good the kid is going to be. He is hands down one of the best 4-5 wingers in the game and will continue to play rep footy, and he just had his 22nd birthday. There is no reason to think he won't continue improving. We all want him to be better, and we should all complain when he throws a 2m forward pass into row B because that's a poor play no matter who you are... but if the best fullbacks in the NRL are anything to go by, it takes a lot more than one season to become a gun fullback (and difference maker).

Here's a breakdown/comparison of some of the guys who have been considered the "NRL's best fullback" over the last 10-15 years, and what they were doing in the year they turned 22. Holmes is at or near the same point in his development as nearly everyone on that list, with Lockyer and Inglis being the only guys who you would have looked at when they were 21 as being clearly ahead of where Holmes is now (22 Slater was nowhere near the player 26 year old Slater was). The closest comparison in terms of timelines is Darius Boyd. If he turns into as good a player as Boyd that will be fine with me.

Ben Barba
19 yo - NYC (4 NRL games)
20 yo - NYC (4 NRL games
21 yo - NRL ... 21 games in utility role
22 yo - NRL ... First season a fullback with mixed results. Poor under the high ball. Was a lot better in the second half of the year
23 yo - NRL ... won Dally M

Billy Slater

19 yo - Qld Cup
20 yo - NRL debut at wing then centre. Was starting fullback by mid year
21 yo - State of Origin debut on the wing
22 yo - State of Origin starter at fullback
*
25 yo - Debuted for Australia at fullback

Darius Boyd
19yo - NRL ... full season mostly on the wing (8 games at fullback)
20yo - NRL ... full season split between wing/centre (5 games at fulback)
21yo - NRL ... full season split between wing/centre (3 games at fullback). Debuted for Qld and Australia on the wing.
22yo - NRL ... first full season as fullback (Dragons)
*
29yo - First games for Qld/Australia at fullback.

James Tedesco
19yo - Injured in NRL debut and missed the full season
20yo - Started on the wing but moved to fullback after Moltzen went down.
21yo - Played 8 NRL games and went down with another injury
22yo - First full season as NRL fullback
23yo - Debuted for NSW at fullback.

Greg Inglis
18yo - 13 NRL games covering wing/centre/fullback
19yo - 19 NRL games playing centre and fullback. Debuted for Qld and Australia on the wing
20yo - Full NRL season playing 5/8. Moved to centre in rep teams
21yo - 5/8 and centre
22yo - Moved to centres in the NRL
23yo - More centres
24yo - Moved to Souths - kept playing centres
25yo - First full season as NRL fullback. First game for Qld at fullback
26yo - First game for Australia at fullback

Anthony Minichiello
20yo - NRL debut and full NRL season on the wing
21yo - Full season on the wing
22yo - Full season on the wing
23yo - First full season at fullback. Debuted for NSW at fullback. Debuted for Australia on the wing
24yo - First games for Australia at fullback

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
19yo - NYC and 6 NRL games on the wong
20yo - Full NRL season on the wing. Debuted for NZ on the wing
21yo - Full NRL season on the wing.
22yo - First NRL seaon at fullback. First games for NZ at fullback

Darren Lockyer
18yo - Qld Cup. 11 ARL games as a utility
19yo - 20 ARL games as a utility
20yo - First full season at fullback (Super League). Debuted for Qld at fullback. Debuted for Australia on the bench. Was starting fullback later in the year.
*
22yo - Superstar

Jarryd Hayne
18yo - 16 NRL games on the wing
19yo - First half of the seaon at wing. Took over fullback at the end of the season after injury to Luke Burt. Debuted for NSW and Australia on the wing.
20yo - Splut time between centre/wing/fullback (mostly centre)
21yo - Started the season at 5/8, then centre. Was fullback from round 9 onwards. Won Dally M
22yo - First full NRL season at fullback. First games for NSW at fullback

****

Valentine Holmes
19yo - NYC and 6 NRL games on the wing
20yo - Full NRL season on the wing (4 games at fullback)
21yo - Full NRL season on the wing. Debuted for Australia on the wing
22yo - First full season as NRL fullback. Debuted for Qld on the wing

What does this tell us? Well - he's probably not going to be as good as Lockyer ... but it's not unreasonable to think Holmes will be compared to the rest of the players on that list by the time he's 25. If he's not, stick him back on the wing or let him walk. For now we've gotta give him time to grow in to that role. 18 NRL games is not enough of a sample for anyone to be making a decision on whether he is the guy or not (he's played 21 games this season but 3 were on the wing).

 

[Gards]

It would be brilliant to have the season stats alongside their respective ages but would prob be a lot of work to format for a forum post, good job regardless I was waiting for someone to do this sorta thing, perhaps not in so much detail ha

 

[ABshark]

Great post burgess.

All of those guys are/were the best in their position, at least for a time. If Val can get to that level at any point we should be happy. I think there's a lot of development left in him.

 

[djhabib]

Yep give him time it will come

 

[Sir Chadley]

Forget the fullback spot. When Val gets older and has more experience, he will be a six.

 

[HaroldBishop]

Yep give him time it will come

Some need more time than others.

Forget the fullback spot. When Val gets older and has more experience, he will be a six.

Nah.

 

[Gards]

Or he could just be a career fullback... one thing at a time Chad not everyone is the next Lockyer

 

[Capital_Shark]

Excellent post Burgo. I said a while back that Slater wasn't the ball playing genius fullback for quiet a while into his career and that Val is tracking nicely, but I didn't realise his path lined up almost perfectly to all those other star fullbacks.

 

[sharkyboy]

Forget the fullback spot. When Val gets older and has more experience, he will be a six.

No he won't hahaha

 

[snowman]

Forget the fullback spot. When Val gets older and has more experience, he will be a six.

omfg

 

[Sir Chadley]

I'm happy to admit it if I'm wrong as long as you guys give me all the glory and respect if I'm right.

 

[sharkyboy]

How about 6 beers over the season every year he's not in the 6 jersey?

 

[Sharkyle]

He's a decent fullback but an amazing winger (one of the best young wingers I've ever seen). He should be playing in his best position, that's the wing imo. Especially bringing a more experienced fullback to the club in Dugan

 

[snowman]

He's a decent fullback but an amazing winger (one of the best young wingers I've ever seen). He should be playing in his best position, that's the wing imo. Especially bringing a more experienced fullback to the club in Dugan

Val has done more in his 20 games at fullback than dugan has in his last 60.

 

[Sharkyle]

Val has done more in his 20 games at fullback than dugan has in his last 60.

Completely different teams. Dugan had been in a **** side, can't all be on one player. Dugan in this sharks team running off Fifita, Lewis, Graham, Gallen, Maloney.... different story. You can't compare apples to oranges

 

[slide rule]

He's a decent fullback but an amazing winger (one of the best young wingers I've ever seen). He should be playing in his best position, that's the wing imo. Especially bringing a more experienced fullback to the club in Dugan

What part of Val's wing game do you like?

 

[Sharkyle]

What part of Val's wing game do you like?

His finishing, defence and positioning.

For the record I'm not saying Dugan is a better fullback then Val, but Val is a better singer then he is a fullback and should play in his best position

 

[snowman]

Completely different teams. Dugan had been in a **** side, can't all be on one player. Dugan in this sharks team running off Fifita, Lewis, Graham, Gallen, Maloney.... different story. You can't compare apples to oranges

You have to compare whats in front of you. Tedesco made it work.

Dugan isnt a modern fullback

 

[sharkyboy]

His finishing, defence and positioning.

For the record I'm not saying Dugan is a better fullback then Val, but Val is a better singer then he is a fullback and should play in his best position

Actually his positioning on the wing wasn't all that crash hot

 

[Sir Chadley]

How about 6 beers over the season every year he's not in the 6 jersey?

Nah mate, I'm all about the glory and respect.