Match 2026 NRL Round 14 - Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs St-George Illawarra Dragons. 4:05 pm, Sunday 7 June @ Ocean Protect Stadium

Match threads
That’s why only look at wins and losses when looking at the ladder. Ignore the byes and positions
 
apezza said:
Couldn't the closeness of the comp actually make it less wins required (due to teams beating each other)?

Either way, for and against will more than likely determine both top 4 and top 8 this year.
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In most cases yes.

Mathematically the exception would be in a comp where both of of these things happen:
- Gap between 1 and 8 is very small, and
- There are a lot of really bad teams

It is mathematically possible in the current comp, but would the need Panthers to come back to the field and require teams #10-#17 to not win any games the rest of the season except the ones played against each other. If the bottom 8 averages 22 points or less the cut-off for 8th would be 36 points (15 wins).

In that situation teams 1-9 would be congested and it would be considered a close comp.

Not happening, but mathematically possible.
 
Sharks NRL Prospects said:
In most cases yes.

Mathematically the exception would be in a comp where both of of these things happen:
- Gap between 1 and 8 is very small, and
- There are a lot of really bad teams

It is mathematically possible in the current comp, but would the need Panthers to come back to the field and require teams #10-#17 to not win any games the rest of the season except the ones played against each other. If the bottom 8 averages 22 points or less the cut-off for 8th would be 36 points (15 wins).

In that situation teams 1-9 would be congested and it would be considered a close comp.

Not happening, but mathematically possible.
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That's some sexy math. Comp is way too close for this to happen.

It would mean for the rest of the year:

- Cowboys 0 wins
- Tigers 2 wins
- Broncos 3 wins
- Raiders 3 wins
- Storm 3 wins
 
Proud Shark said:
That's some sexy math. Comp is way too close for this to happen.

It would mean for the rest of the year:

- Cowboys 0 wins
- Tigers 2 wins
- Broncos 3 wins
- Raiders 3 wins
- Storm 3 wins
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Cowboys aren't in the bottom eight.

Also... 22 points average across those eight would do it.. Could have four teams on 30 and four on 14 and it would still work.
 
Sharks NRL Prospects said:
Cowboys aren't in the bottom eight.

Also... 22 points average across those eight would do it.. Could have four teams on 30 and four on 14 and it would still work.
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Yeah I thought that after I posted. Depends on what games are left though. It is probably impossible for the later situation already. Would mean Dogs and Parra don't get another point, and they play each other this week.

Adjusted for byes, the bottom 9 can only account for 34 wins to finish the season at an average of 3.8. There are 27 match ups left between bottom 9 sides. So theoretically possible until 7 bottom 9 sides beat top 8 sides. Maybe some change as teams rotate in and out though.
 
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Proud Shark said:
Yeah I thought that after I posted. Depends on what games are left though. It is probably impossible for the later situation already. Would mean Dogs and Parra don't get another point, and they play each other this week.

Adjusted for byes, the bottom 9 can only account for 34 wins to finish the season at an average of 3.8. There are 27 match ups left between bottom 9 sides. So theoretically possible until 7 bottom 9 sides beat top 8 sides. Maybe some change as teams rotate in and out though.
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Not bottom nine. Bottom eight. If the bottom nine are all bad it doesn't push up the requirement for 8th. You need nine good teams to do that.

Here is the actual sexy math.

Points awarded in the season = 510
Top 8 teams have at least 36 points (-288) = 222
Team 9 has at least 34 points (-34) = 188
*
It becomes mathematically impossible for 36 to be the cut-off for 8th whenever teams 10-17 cross the threshold of 189 total points (including future byes and future matches between them). Any team going past 36 also brings that number down.

(I don't know how many matches there are between those teams. I asked AI three times and got three different answers).
 
2018 was kinda cool
4 teams with 16 wins, 4 teams with 15 wins
9th was 3 wins short of the 8
And 10th was out of mathematical finals contention for 4 games, almost 1/6 of the season

(sharks finished top 4 but worst +\- )
 
bort said:
2018 was kinda cool
4 teams with 16 wins, 4 teams with 15 wins
9th was 3 wins short of the 8
And 10th was out of mathematical finals contention for 4 games, almost 1/6 of the season

(sharks finished top 4 but worst +\- )
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Yeah. Thought of that year. Met the criteria. Small gap between 1 and 8, and teams 10 down averaging 8 wins or less (was exactly 8).

Different math to above now though since that was pre-Dolphins.

Would have won the Roosters game in week 1 if wade doesn't blow an ACL or Lewis gets that ball down. :mad:
 
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I don't see that being our final 19.

There is no point having 6 forwards on the bench whatsoever.
 
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The bench (and their playing numbers) are interesting. It'll keep the Dragons guessing.
Sort of interesting that Talakai has gone from 15 to 14, Burns 16 to 15 and JC 14->16. Is that some sort of Fitz promotion/demotion...

SHARKS TEAM LIST
1 - Will Kennedy - The Roaming Cup
2 - Sam Stonestreet - Bath Haus
3 - Jesse Ramien - The Vinyl Room Nightclub Gymea
4 - Mawene Hiroti - Shire Steel & Fabrication
5 - Ronaldo Mulitalo - A Corp. Computers
6 - Braydon Trindall - Totally Workwear Kirrawee
7 - Niwhai Puru - John Ryan Freight Services
8 - Addin Fonua-Blake - Hicon
9 - Jayden Berrell - Elite Legal
10 - Toby Rudolf - Picker Financial
11 - Briton Nikora - Guardian Venue Management International
12 - Teig Wilton - White Wolf Constructions
13 - Cameron McInnes - Alltech Payroll
Interchange
14 - Siosifa Talakai - O'Brien Palmer
15 - Billy Burns - Hamilton Elevators
16 - Jesse Colquhoun - Quest Apartment Hotels
17 - Tom Hazelton - Club Central Menai
18 - Hohepa Puru
19 - Oregon Kaufusi
20 - Riley Jones
21- KL Iro
22 - Sione Katoa
Head Coach
Craig Fitzgibbon - Aramex
 
Looks like Fitz's thinking is Cam spending some time at dummy half rather than Hohepa
 
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